Ukraine Watch: Has inflation finally bottomed out?

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN MAY 14, 2024 09:34 CEST

Inflation brought another surprise to the market with just 0.2% mom and an unchanged annualized CPI at 3.2% yoy in April. But core inflation denoted a more visible acceleration (4.4% yoy), showing some potential for pro-inflationary factors. We maintain our inflation forecast.

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Serbia Watch: Monthly inflation accelerated its pace again in May

Ljiljana GRUBIC MAY 13, 2024 13:51 CEST

The monthly dynamics in retail prices accelerated again in April (+0.7% mom), after the 0.3% mom increase in March, due to increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8% mom) and transport prices (+1.7% mom). The annualized print remained unchanged at 5% yoy.

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Serbia Watch: Key rate flat at 6.5%, no forward guidance for the next meeting

Ljiljana GRUBIC MAY 10, 2024 13:34 CEST

The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key rate at 6.5%, the tenth month in a row, amidst still elevated (though falling) global inflation risks. While a rate cut could be made as soon as in June, we also see risks of a delay until July.

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Czechia Watch: CNB cuts rates by 50bp again, koruna below 25 EUR/CZK

Martin KRON MAY 03, 2024 08:12 CEST

The CNB Bank Board cut interest rates by 50bp for the third time in a row, which was the consensus among analysts ahead of the meeting. All 7 members of the Bank Board were in favour of the move.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - Bond market integration

Stephan IMRE MAY 02, 2024 16:59 CEST

The integration of the government bond markets of the CE/SEE NMS with the core markets in the EU is a milestone on the way to a more developed economy. While integration, as measured by price movements vis-à-vis the reference market, can be quickly reversed in times of crisis, the recent pandemic has shown that targeted policy measures can prevent renewed fragmentation. Within the Visegrád countries, the Czech Republic has a high degree of bond market integration, while high beta names such as Romania, but also Hungary, remain sensitive. On the other hand, as part of a quantity-based integration analysis, non-resident holdings have not changed too much since the euro area sovereign debt crisis due to the phenomenal home bias of investors.

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Fed Watch: Constant key rates, slower QT

Franz ZOBL MAY 02, 2024 07:17 CEST

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5%. Rate cuts are not imminent as recent data releases have not increased the Fed's confidence in regaining price stability. Yet, raising interest rates further are not on the table. The Fed decided to slow the pace of balance sheet rundown (QT) from June onwards. A more gradual approach is intended to limit the risks of financial market turbulences from central bank liquidity becoming scarce. Treasury yields decreased because of the meeting and the US-dollar weakened.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - the strengthening of labour markets

Andrej MARTISKA APRIL 30, 2024 15:39 CEST

20 years after EU accession, unemployment rates in Czechia and Poland are the lowest in the whole EU, unemployment in Hungary is also significantly below the EU average and in Slovakia moved down to the EU average. Significant reductions in youth and long-term unemployment are particularly impressive. Meanwhile, labour shortages are an increasing challenge while at the same time, regional disparities persist leaving room for further improvement. Wage convergence, while progressing, remains incomplete.

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