Serbia Watch: Nothing new, benchmark rate flat at 5.75%

Ljiljana GRUBIC MAY 09, 2025 13:07 CEST

As was widely expected, Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) stuck to its policy of maintaining the benchmark rate flat at 5.75%, as well as the deposit and credit facility rates, 4.5% and 7%, respectively.

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Fed Watch: Wait-and-see

Franz ZOBL MAY 08, 2025 07:14 CEST

Constant key rates, only small adjustments in Fed communication and no substantial market reaction. The May FOMC meeting was no blockbuster. The Fed emphasized more uncertainty and upside risks to both unemployment and inflation. The extent and persistence of which will determine when the Fed will restart its rate cutting cycle. Based on the current state of the US economy, the Fed is in no hurry.

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Czechia Watch: The last rate cut this year?

Martin KRON MAY 07, 2025 17:31 CEST

In line with our and market forecasts, the CNB Bank Board maintained its stop-and-go mode and cut interest rates by 25 bp. The base rate will thus fall to 3.50%. Six board members raised their hands to support this decision, while one voted to keep interest rates stable.

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Croatian Tourism in 2024 and 2025 outlook

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC MAY 07, 2025 10:57 CEST

As the Easter holidays and the "official" start of the tourist pre-season approach, tourism topics once again come into focus, which is unsurprising given its importance in the Croatian economy. In 2024, tourism receipts accounted for nearly 18% of the domestic GDP, up from 13% in 2000. Over the same period, total accommodation capacity increased by as much as 78%, with private accommodation nearly tripling. This development highlights the extent to which disposable income and household consumption are tied to this sector. The structure of accommodation capacities, where hotels account for only about 14%, is closely linked to Croatia's pronounced seasonality and a relatively low share of employment in the accommodation and food service sector, which stood at 5.7% in 2024. Furthermore, Croatia still significantly lags behind its Mediterranean peers with revenues per overnight stay of 176 euros in 2024.

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Czechia Watch: Inflation below 2% target

Martin KRON MAY 07, 2025 08:00 CEST

The Czech Statistical Office's preliminary estimate showed that consumer inflation fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April, even below the CNB's 2% target year-on-year. Specifically, it stood at 1.8%, while our and the market forecast had expected a decrease of "only" 2.1%.

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Croatia Watch: Retail slowed down, but is the industry ready to rebound?

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC APRIL 30, 2025 18:23 CEST

Domestic demand is likely to continue driving growth in 2025, albeit at a more moderate pace than in previous years. Available high-frequency indicators for Q1 already point in this direction. Although at a slower pace, retail trade recorded real year-on-year growth, while industrial production delivered a positive surprise with an average growth rate of 5.2%.

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Croatia Watch: Fiscal metrics within the Maastricht criteria

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC APRIL 23, 2025 08:00 CEST

At the end of 2024, the public debt-to-GDP ratio fell below 60% for the first time since 2010, while the general government budget deficit, despite worsening, remained below 3%. Croatia thus concluded the year within the Maastricht criteria, reaffirming its status as a country with relatively low levels of debt and deficit.

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