CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - the strengthening of labour markets

Andrej MARTISKA APRIL 30, 2024 15:39 CEST

20 years after EU accession, unemployment rates in Czechia and Poland are the lowest in the whole EU, unemployment in Hungary is also significantly below the EU average and in Slovakia moved down to the EU average. Significant reductions in youth and long-term unemployment are particularly impressive. Meanwhile, labour shortages are an increasing challenge while at the same time, regional disparities persist leaving room for further improvement. Wage convergence, while progressing, remains incomplete.

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Croatia Watch: Retail up, industry down

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC APRIL 30, 2024 14:37 CEST

In line with our expectations, the high-frequency data point to a mixed trend in economic activity in Q1 2024. A strong labour market, the continued increase in consumer optimism coupled with weakening inflationary pressures and the acceleration in consumer loan growth had a positive impact on retail sales. On the other hand, industrial production is still not showing any signs of recovery at the beginning of 2024.

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Spotlight: TeraPlast: One step closer to reaping the rewards

Andreea-Cristina CIUBOTARU APRIL 29, 2024 13:00 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

  • TeraPlast Group is the largest polymer processor in the eastern part of the EU and the only Romanian manufacturer of HFFR (halogen-free, fire-resistant) compounds.
  • The company is also one of the main providers of comprehensive installation and construction solutions in Romania and the leader of the PVC compounds market in Romania with a market share of 40%.
  • With over 34 years of experience, TeraPlast business model centers around the installation segment, complemented by the compounds segment, joinery profiles and flexible packaging segments aimed to provide solutions to its associates by marketing complementary products.
  • The group has an annual processing capacity of 176k tons and operates through by 10 factories located in Romania, which are supported by roughly 80 production lines with state-of-art equipment. The total area on which the group operates rises to 346k sqm, divided 30%-70% between production and outdoor storage area.
  • The Group is boasting a workforce of around 1k employees, and it serves 3.2k customers annually through 7 logistics centers.
  • The acquisition of Palplast Moldova announced in December 2023 will strengthen TeraPlast's presence on the Moldavian market and will serve as a gateway to Ukraine.
  • In February 2024, TeraPlast announced the acquisition of Austria's Freiler Group, which will allow TeraPlast to reduce the dependency on a single market. Currently, the Group's products are exported to 22 countries.
  • For 2024, TeraPlast expects an upside of 33% yoy in terms of volumes amounting to 100k tons. The contribution of the acquired subsidiaries is expected to be 20k tons, while the difference of 80k tons (+16% yoy) will be generated by the current group.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - the rise of trade

Zoltán TÖRÖK APRIL 26, 2024 11:07 CEST

In our second release devoted to the 20th anniversary of Central European countries joining the EU, we dive deeper into changes in trade throughout these two decades. While not being a source of structural changes, joining the EU has boosted both intra and extra-EU trade of the V4 countries providing fuel for further economic growth and convergence with the block.

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B&H Economic Insights: Moderate economic outlook

Ivona ZAMETICA APRIL 24, 2024 17:10 CEST

In March Bosnia and Herzegovina reached one of the most important foreign policy goals in history– getting the EU Negotiator country status. The economy kept growing at a below-average rate real GDP of 1.7% yoy in 2023 with consumption and investments driving the economy.

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Wide Angle Shot: 20 years EU membership CE - Successes, reversals and twist

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 22, 2024 05:15 CEST

EU's expansion into Central Europe (CE, 2004) has been an economic success story at the macroeconomic level. This holds true despite certain twists and tweaks. Ballooning foreign trade and FDI have led to a sustained economic and income catch-up vis-a-vis Western Europe. In banking, catch-up trends are somewhat more complex. Overall, THE "Convergence Winners", if macroeconomics and banking are taken as a benchmark, are presumably Czechia and Slovakia. On an interesting note both countries pursued very differing strategies, paired with a few underlying similarities. Austrian banks remain a dominating force in CE (market share 25%). Going forward the CE region can benefit from the successes achieved and current geo-economic trends — if it can avoid being in its very own corner.

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Fed Watch: Hot inflation delays rate cuts

Franz ZOBL APRIL 16, 2024 07:13 CEST

Disinflation hopes have been put to rest by the hotter than expected US inflation figures for March. This has implications for the Fed and financial markets. While we expect the mid-term disinflation trend to remain intact, an imminent cooling of inflation dynamics which could save a June rate cut seems out of reach. We now expect the Fed to cut in September, see US Treasury yields to stay high in the short-term before retreating over the mid-term and assess the US dollar to remain well-supported not only by a diverging Fed/ECB path but also by geopolitical risks.

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