Czechia Watch: CNB cuts rates by 50bp again, koruna below 25 EUR/CZK

Martin KRON MAY 03, 2024 08:12 CEST

The CNB Bank Board cut interest rates by 50bp for the third time in a row, which was the consensus among analysts ahead of the meeting. All 7 members of the Bank Board were in favour of the move.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - Bond market integration

Stephan IMRE MAY 02, 2024 16:59 CEST

The integration of the government bond markets of the CE/SEE NMS with the core markets in the EU is a milestone on the way to a more developed economy. While integration, as measured by price movements vis-à-vis the reference market, can be quickly reversed in times of crisis, the recent pandemic has shown that targeted policy measures can prevent renewed fragmentation. Within the Visegrád countries, the Czech Republic has a high degree of bond market integration, while high beta names such as Romania, but also Hungary, remain sensitive. On the other hand, as part of a quantity-based integration analysis, non-resident holdings have not changed too much since the euro area sovereign debt crisis due to the phenomenal home bias of investors.

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Fed Watch: Constant key rates, slower QT

Franz ZOBL MAY 02, 2024 07:17 CEST

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5%. Rate cuts are not imminent as recent data releases have not increased the Fed's confidence in regaining price stability. Yet, raising interest rates further are not on the table. The Fed decided to slow the pace of balance sheet rundown (QT) from June onwards. A more gradual approach is intended to limit the risks of financial market turbulences from central bank liquidity becoming scarce. Treasury yields decreased because of the meeting and the US-dollar weakened.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - the strengthening of labour markets

Andrej MARTISKA APRIL 30, 2024 15:39 CEST

20 years after EU accession, unemployment rates in Czechia and Poland are the lowest in the whole EU, unemployment in Hungary is also significantly below the EU average and in Slovakia moved down to the EU average. Significant reductions in youth and long-term unemployment are particularly impressive. Meanwhile, labour shortages are an increasing challenge while at the same time, regional disparities persist leaving room for further improvement. Wage convergence, while progressing, remains incomplete.

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Croatia Watch: Retail up, industry down

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC APRIL 30, 2024 14:37 CEST

In line with our expectations, the high-frequency data point to a mixed trend in economic activity in Q1 2024. A strong labour market, the continued increase in consumer optimism coupled with weakening inflationary pressures and the acceleration in consumer loan growth had a positive impact on retail sales. On the other hand, industrial production is still not showing any signs of recovery at the beginning of 2024.

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Spotlight: TeraPlast: One step closer to reaping the rewards

Andreea-Cristina CIUBOTARU APRIL 29, 2024 13:00 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

  • TeraPlast Group is the largest polymer processor in the eastern part of the EU and the only Romanian manufacturer of HFFR (halogen-free, fire-resistant) compounds.
  • The company is also one of the main providers of comprehensive installation and construction solutions in Romania and the leader of the PVC compounds market in Romania with a market share of 40%.
  • With over 34 years of experience, TeraPlast business model centers around the installation segment, complemented by the compounds segment, joinery profiles and flexible packaging segments aimed to provide solutions to its associates by marketing complementary products.
  • The group has an annual processing capacity of 176k tons and operates through by 10 factories located in Romania, which are supported by roughly 80 production lines with state-of-art equipment. The total area on which the group operates rises to 346k sqm, divided 30%-70% between production and outdoor storage area.
  • The Group is boasting a workforce of around 1k employees, and it serves 3.2k customers annually through 7 logistics centers.
  • The acquisition of Palplast Moldova announced in December 2023 will strengthen TeraPlast's presence on the Moldavian market and will serve as a gateway to Ukraine.
  • In February 2024, TeraPlast announced the acquisition of Austria's Freiler Group, which will allow TeraPlast to reduce the dependency on a single market. Currently, the Group's products are exported to 22 countries.
  • For 2024, TeraPlast expects an upside of 33% yoy in terms of volumes amounting to 100k tons. The contribution of the acquired subsidiaries is expected to be 20k tons, while the difference of 80k tons (+16% yoy) will be generated by the current group.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - the rise of trade

Zoltán TÖRÖK APRIL 26, 2024 11:07 CEST

In our second release devoted to the 20th anniversary of Central European countries joining the EU, we dive deeper into changes in trade throughout these two decades. While not being a source of structural changes, joining the EU has boosted both intra and extra-EU trade of the V4 countries providing fuel for further economic growth and convergence with the block.

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