Wide Angle Shot: 20 years EU membership CE - Successes, reversals and twist

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 22, 2024 05:15 CEST

EU's expansion into Central Europe (CE, 2004) has been an economic success story at the macroeconomic level. This holds true despite certain twists and tweaks. Ballooning foreign trade and FDI have led to a sustained economic and income catch-up vis-a-vis Western Europe. In banking, catch-up trends are somewhat more complex. Overall, THE "Convergence Winners", if macroeconomics and banking are taken as a benchmark, are presumably Czechia and Slovakia. On an interesting note both countries pursued very differing strategies, paired with a few underlying similarities. Austrian banks remain a dominating force in CE (market share 25%). Going forward the CE region can benefit from the successes achieved and current geo-economic trends — if it can avoid being in its very own corner.

Read More

Fed Watch: Hot inflation delays rate cuts

Franz ZOBL APRIL 16, 2024 07:13 CEST

Disinflation hopes have been put to rest by the hotter than expected US inflation figures for March. This has implications for the Fed and financial markets. While we expect the mid-term disinflation trend to remain intact, an imminent cooling of inflation dynamics which could save a June rate cut seems out of reach. We now expect the Fed to cut in September, see US Treasury yields to stay high in the short-term before retreating over the mid-term and assess the US dollar to remain well-supported not only by a diverging Fed/ECB path but also by geopolitical risks.

Read More

The Green Deal - 04/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER APRIL 12, 2024 09:54 CEST

The momentum on the ESG primary market picked up again in March, which can be attributed in particular to corporate issuers. The trend towards Green Bonds was also confirmed. Keyword Green Bond - we took a closer look at the potential pool of issuers for EuGBs and are looking forward to the end of the year when this standard comes into force.

Read More

ECB Watch: All is set to cut in June

Franz ZOBL APRIL 11, 2024 15:31 CEST

For one last time, the ECB has kept key interest rates unchanged. At the next meeting in June, however, everything will be ready to kick-start the rate cutting cycle. Today's ECB meeting should be seen as a preparatory one, at which no additional impulses were given.

Read More

Serbia Watch: Key rate flat but cuts around the corner

Ljiljana GRUBIC APRIL 11, 2024 14:07 CEST

The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key rate at 6.5%, for the ninth month in a row. Local price developments support a scenario of a rate cut already in Q2 but upside risks for US rates may affect the timing of first cuts by NBS.

Read More

Ukraine Watch: March CPI reaches lowest level since November 2020

Serhii KOLODII APRIL 11, 2024 08:59 CEST

Inflation fell sharply in March from 4.3% to 3.2% yoy. A slight drop in food prices was the main factor behind this, which was not in line with traditional seasonal trends. We have adjusted our annual inflation forecast for 2024 from 9.0% to 7.5%.

Read More

Czechia Watch: Inflation remained within CNB target in March

Martin KRON APRIL 10, 2024 17:03 CEST

In February, inflation finally reached the CNB’s target after a long period, and this development was sustained in March, aligning with our forecast. This is undoubtedly good news, but there are apparent differences in the individual sections of the consumer basket.

Read More