Serbia Watch: Key rate flat at 6.5%

Ljiljana GRUBIC DECEMBER 07, 2023 14:32 CET

Unsurprisingly, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia voted for no key rate change amid ongoing global and domestic disinflation. The policy easing is still far ahead and, on top of the inflation path, will be dependent on the decisions of major global central banks.

Read More

Wide Angle Shot: Fresh EU perspectives in (Central) Eastern Europe?

Gunter DEUBER DECEMBER 07, 2023 12:17 CET

Recent elections in Central Europe are likely to shuffle political dynamics within the EU bloc, bringing Poland closer to the EU (again), while Slovakia may adopt a more demanding stance. This realignment could also have an impact on the lately stepped-up process of EU enlargement, which is already facing some challenges (necessary reforms both in the accession countries and in the EU), but also open up options for new solutions, such as staggered integration. All in all, the political landscape in the East of the EU will continue to be an exciting one in the coming years, potentially with more scope for positive than negative surprises!

Read More

Poland Watch: Core inflation drops while GDP momentum holds

Dorota STRAUCH NOVEMBER 30, 2023 15:40 CET

Poland’s inflation eased by 0.1pp to 6.5% yoy in November with a hefty core inflation drop while food and fuel price dynamics surprised to the upside. Q3 GDP growth data (0.5% yoy) confirmed consumer rebound with an ongoing decline of exports and imports.

Read More

Serbia Watch: Robust quarterly GDP data in Q3

Ljiljana GRUBIC NOVEMBER 30, 2023 15:17 CET

Despite high financing costs and hikes in electricity and gas prices on the domestic market, GDP extended an investment driven upward swing to 3.6% yoy in Q3 after an average growth of 1.6% in H1.

Read More

Croatia Watch: Q3 GDP data exceeded our expectations


Investment activity and private consumption contributed to the acceleration in the real annual GDP growth rate in Q3 2023. Nevertheless, the slowdown in economic activity on a quarterly basis and the GVA reading call for caution.

Read More

(Commercial) Real Estate Watch: Signa crisis and its potential knock-on effects

Gunter DEUBER NOVEMBER 27, 2023 06:59 CET

The worsening situation around Signa Group (insolvency of first company parts, pending liquidity peaks) may have noticeable effects on European Commercial Real Estate (CRE), incl. the domestic (Austrian) market, which is otherwise showing a more stable long-term trend than overall European CRE. Overall, the Signa case has the potential to put the Austrian CRE market in the (investor) spotlight in the short term and in 2024. The consequences could be a discernible correction in CRE prices (possibly accompanied by a need for write-downs on the market) coupled with opportunities for consolidation.

Read More

Wide Angle Shot: Germany once again the "sick man" of Europe ... and Austria?

Matthias REITH NOVEMBER 27, 2023 06:42 CET

The weakness in German industry that has been evident since 2017 has had little impact on Austria. Exports to Germany have remained unaffected to date. This is pleasing, but with an unchanged high level of dependency on Germany, it increases the "fall height" with structurally subdued growth prospects there. It is unlikely that Austria will be able to escape the negative pull in the long term. This also applies against the backdrop of the significant loss of price competitiveness that Austrian industry has to cope with. The fragile domestic economic upturn in 2024 should therefore not be largely driven by (goods) exports.

Read More