Ukraine Watch: Inflation acceleration returned to forecasted path

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN FEBRUARY 11, 2025 14:10 CET

Inflation in January aligned with forecasts at 1.2% monthly. Annual inflation rose from 12.0% to 12.9% due to a low comparison base. We expect annual CPI to peak at around 15% in April before declining to 8.0% by year-end. This suggests further monetary tightening by the NBU.

Read More

Kosovo Watch: From ballots to bargains, Kosovo's coalition building begins

Fjorent RRUSHI FEBRUARY 11, 2025 12:24 CET

Kosovo held its general elections on February 9, and with over 99% of the votes counted, Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Lëvizja Vetëvendosje leads with 40.8%, though diaspora votes could boost this figure. Despite this, Vetëvendosje will need coalition partners to govern. Potential government options include forming alliances with minority parties or negotiating with larger opposition parties like PDK or LDK, each scenario presenting its own challenges and implications for Kosovo's political stability and dialogue with Serbia.

Read More

Croatia Economic Insights: Optimism, but there's always another side

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC FEBRUARY 07, 2025 12:36 CET

Despite global challenges, the economic outlook remains favourable, driven by consumption and investments. However, the lack of recovery of key foreign partners and the industrial structure remain drags. Amid a strong labour market, wage growth pressure poses an inflation risk.

Read More

Czechia Watch: Hawkish resumption of the rate cut cycle

Martin KRON FEBRUARY 07, 2025 08:40 CET

After the stability in December, the Czech National Bank's board, in line with our and market forecasts, resumed the monetary policy easing and cut rates by 25bps at its first meeting of the year. The key interest rate will thus decline to 3.75% as of tomorrow.

Read More

The Green Deal (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER FEBRUARY 03, 2025 14:52 CET

The Net Zero Banking Alliance is increasingly losing members, headwinds for diversity and ESG fund outflows. You could say the market is moving from “green-washing” to “green-hushing”. With Donald Trump in office, this is unlikely to change. ESG fixed income, on the other hand, was able to attract capital in 2024 and with A2A we saw the first EuGB Standard issuer in January. The EUR primary market start in 2025 was solid, albeit far from the record level of 2024.

Read More

Croatia Watch: Resilient Consumption vs. Struggling Industry in 2024

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC JANUARY 31, 2025 08:01 CET

The high-frequency indicators painted a mixed picture throughout 2024, reinforcing the notion that personal consumption remains a key pillar of economic growth in the last quarter of 2024. On the other hand, industrial production has recorded its second consecutive year of decline.

Read More

ECB Watch: Not the last rate cut

Franz ZOBL JANUARY 30, 2025 15:45 CET

As expected, the ECB Governing Council decided to cut its key interest rates again by 25bps today. The deposit rate is now at 2.75%. Furthermore, the Governing Council remains committed to its data-driven approach, does not rule out further rate cuts, but also does not comment on how many there will be. Given our view of declining (service) inflation and downside risks to the economic outlook, we expect further interest rate cuts over the next few months and see the deposit rate at 2% in June.

Read More