Russia Watch: Growing imports put pressure on C/A

09 April 2021 17:15 CEST

In Q1 2021, the current account (C/A) surplus stood at USD 16.8 bn (-27% yoy), close to our estimate (USD 18 bn). Apart from increased sanction risks, in Q2 the support from the C/A will weaken. Additionally, the third Covid-19 wave could hamper the global economic recovery.

Read More

Poland Economic Insights: Pandemic continues to drag GDP growth and lift CPI

08 April 2021 15:45 CEST

As vaccinations accelerate in Q2 and restrictions get eased again, the recovery should be driven by consumption and foreign trade with still weak investment activity until NGEU funds arrive. MPC seems immune to upward CPI risks, therefore we still expect first hikes in late 2022.

Read More

Russia Watch: CPI at the tipping point, the CBR proceeded with MPC tightening

07 April 2021 14:11 CEST

According to Rosstat, the CPI reached 0.66% mom (5.8% yoy) in March. The March figure should be a tipping moment for the annual path and we expect CPI to decelerate to 4.9% by 2021 YE. The CBR already responded with a key rate hike (+25bp), with further tightening on the agenda.

Read More

Wide Angle Shot: IMF views euro area an underperformer — CEE traces more the US

07 April 2021 07:55 CEST

According to fresh projections, the IMF is very upbeat about the global economic outlook, less so for the euro area. Here, as well as for very many country forecast points in CEE, our projections coincide with those of the IMF, less so for Russia, Belarus and selected countries in Southeastern Europe.

Read More

Gabriel Felbermayr — Future head of Austrian Institute of Economic Research

07 April 2021 05:40 CEST

For once, the news of April 6, 2021 in Austria is not COVID-19 dominated, but concerns the appointment of a new head of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (Wifo). This is not just a major news, but a top decision, because Gabriel Felbermayr is one of the most renowned Austrian economists with high international profile.

Read More