Bosnia and H. Watch: Political atmosphere heated to a point not seen since 1997

15 October 2021 11:28 CEST

The leader of the largest Serb party (SNSD) and Serb member of B&H Presidency, Mr. Dodik, has started offensive actions for secession of Republic of Srpska from B&H State institutions in the last days. Political rhetoric was heated to a point not seen since the end of the war.

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Romania Watch: Low level of current account deficit recorded in August

14 October 2021 16:53 CEST

Both the foreign trade deficit and the current account deficit decreased visibly in August due to a good performance of exports and of a mild contraction of imports. We still see upside risks to our forecast placing the current account deficit at 6.5% of GDP this year.

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Belarus Watch: Another Inflation Spike in September

13 October 2021 15:43 CEST

As expected, inflation has started to rise again in Belarus. Inflation accelerated to 10.2% yoy. The main driver of the CPI growth was the food prices, which increased by 11.2% yoy. We project the CPI peaking at 11% in December 2021 and a decline in of inflation during 2022.

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Wide Angle Shot: Fresh IMF forecasts — the Central Eastern European Perspective

13 October 2021 07:22 CEST

Most recent IMF forecasts (World Economic Outlook) for Central and Eastern Europe plus Austria, like our forecast set, show significant upward GDP revisions for 2021 (compared to spring). For the CEE region as a whole, we are slightly more cautious for 2022 and noticeably more cautious for Belarus and Russia in the short and/or medium term. Overall, however, and in contrast to global emerging markets, the CEE region escapes significant downward revisions.

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Serbia Watch: Food prices pushed inflation again to 5.7% yoy in September

12 October 2021 15:47 CEST

Monthly prices development (+0.8% mom) was quite tranquil but still led inflation to 5.7% yoy in September from 4.3%, largely due to local factors driving food inflation. However, the rise does not impact our near term flat rate outlook.

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Czechia Watch: Wind of change after the elections

11 October 2021 12:34 CEST

The victory of the centre-right coalition SPOLU should calm the markets. It signals fiscal austerity and smoother cooperation with the EU. However, post-election negotiations may take months to conclude, and the to-be new government has yet to reveal its program.

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Russia Watch: CPI entered “far far away” territory — hike in October expected

08 October 2021 11:07 CEST

The CPI jumped to 7.4% yoy in September (by 0.7pp up from the August figure). Moreover, the monthly growth rate adjusted for seasonality (0.85% mom sa) even exceeded the level of the first pandemic month of 2020. Thus, we expect another (last) key rate hike to 7% on October 22.

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