Wide Angle Shot: CZ & SK - 30 years of independence, yet in close partnership

Helena HORSKA March 17, 2023 17:45 CET

At the beginning of 1993, the political map expanded and after a peaceful division, Czechoslovakia was replaced by the independent countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Developments over the last 30 years have often diverged and while the Czech Republic has taken a more proactive approach to integration from the start, Slovakia has managed to push integration further by joining the euro area. After 30 years, the two countries maintain a strong relationship and face new - often similar, often quite different - challenges.

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SVB - European banks in focus but contagion risk seems low (EN)

Werner SCHMITZER March 13, 2023 17:11 CET

The second largest bank failure in the US is having rippling effects throughout markets. Government bonds rallied in a flight to safe haven assets and also markets pricing out large parts of future rate hikes by the central banks for now. We would argue for the SVB failure to be a rather local event and point to the ample liquidity situation of the European banking sector - also thanks to TLTRO and differences in the deposit base in general.

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Serbia Watch: Food prices supporting inflation growing to 16.1% yoy in February

Ljiljana GRUBIC March 13, 2023 13:48 CET

The monthly dynamics in retail prices repeated in February (+1.4% mom) just like it was in January, supported by the ongoing growth in food prices (+2.7% mom). However, the annualized print went to 16.1% yoy after 15.8% in January 2023.

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Romania Watch: Elevated and broad-based inflationary pressures in February

Andreea-Elena DRAGHIA March 13, 2023 13:17 CET

Inflation rate reached 15.5% yoy in February, above analysts’ consensus of 15.3%. Monthly inflation rate of 1% was the result of rapid and broad-based price increases for many consumer goods and services. We foresee the annual inflation rate to decrease towards 7% by December.

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Czechia Watch: February inflation is a bittersweet moment

David VAGENKNECHT March 10, 2023 12:34 CET

Consumer prices grew by 0.6% in February due to the absence of another energy price shock. Still, price pressures remain robust with elevated price growth in services. We have revised our inflation outlook upward and expect now a slower-paced rate-cutting cycle.

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Serbia Watch: No surprise in the key rate meeting, +25bp to 5.75%

Ljiljana GRUBIC March 09, 2023 13:04 CET

The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) continued at an unchanged pace, lifting the benchmark rate by another 25bp to 5.75%.

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The Green Deal - 03/23 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER March 08, 2023 12:37 CET

On the secondary market, our Green Index outperformed its non-green counterpart and a greenium for corporates is emerging again, especially at the long end of the curve. The significant sell-off in government bonds has meanwhile resulted in negative ytd total returns, while we do not see a significant change in the greenium for German twin bonds. In 2023, the EUR ESG primary market had its best year-to-date start in their history. As in 2022, this is primarily driven by Financials. Green bonds account for the largest share while SLBs are rather disappointing. Since March, the ECB has also only been buying green corporate bonds & bonds from issuers with a better climate score on the primary market. However, it is not only the ECB that is pushing the green issue, but also the EU. For example, a preliminary agreement was reached on a green bond standard and, perhaps more importantly, there is a draft paper, among other things, on securing the location of green tech in the EU, which we consider crucial in terms of global competition.

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