Russia Watch: February CPI at peak value, CBR seen to keep rates stable in 2021

08 March 2021 07:32 CET

In February, CPI peaked at 5.7% yoy. We expect the CPI upward trend to turn around from March and slow down to 4.0% yoy by year end 2021. Although such high inflation creates risks of earlier than anticipated key rate hikes, we expect it to remain unchanged till year end 2021.

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Ukraine Watch: NBU raises key rate by 50 bp to fight growing inflation

04 March 2021 17:39 CET

The NBU reaffirmed its monetary policy of returning inflation to the targeted corridor of 5%+/-1pp and raised the discount rate by 50 bp to 6.5%, while inflation in January was 6.1% yoy and likely to come in higher in February. This shows the end of the softening policy cycle.

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Ukraine Watch: Key sector deterioration points to slightly negative Q1 GDP

04 March 2021 16:44 CET

After an outstanding performance in November-December, the main sector indices recorded a deterioration in business activity in January. The main reason was the imposition of severe quarantine restrictions from 8-24 January, negatively impacting retail sales and other sectors.

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Poland Watch: NBP raises CPI and GDP forecasts

04 March 2021 15:44 CET

The MPC decision did not bring surprises with key rate still at 0.1% while the revised forecasts raised market expectations for interest rate hikes. However, we still expect the NBP is likely to hold off with such a move and see room for first hikes in Q4 22 the earliest.

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Russia Watch: Aligned US/EU sanctions this time around ... more to come

02 March 2021 19:00 CET

The US, EU and UK announced coordinated sanctions against Russian officials/entities. US authorities are likely to kick the sanctions can down the road. We see limited willingness of the EU to confront Russia further short-term — if there are no further political hiccups.

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