In July 2022, inflation hit a new high of 18.1% yoy. The driver of price growth remains non-food products, while food was deflationary. Meanwhile, core inflation exceeding CPI signals the remaining administrative price controls on socially essential goods and services.
NBR increased the key rate by 75bp, to 5.5%, on Friday, less than expected. NBR is using firm control over money market liquidity conditions as a supplementary instrument to increase the restrictiveness of monetary policy stance. We further see the key rate reaching a peak of 7%.
From late 2021 governments in CE/SEE have been introducing varied measures to soften the hit from rising prices (energy and food in particular). While this slows fiscal consolidation, it should not lead to its reversal. However, as more measures are introduced, it is crucial that they are mostly targeted and temporary in order not to increase fiscal risks but also not to undermine the adjustments of the demand to the shifts in prices. With that, we share the views recently expressed also by the IMF.
Fresh BIS figures show that Russia exposures of Western/European banks are rapidly approaching the "new normal" low single digit exposure range coming from a relative portfolio share of 10%+ (being once on par with Poland or Czechia at ~20%!). Over the next 6-12 months Western bank exposures towards Russia may approach 1998/99 or 2005 levels, the financial interconnectedness with the late Soviet Union is then possibly in further sight, over the next 12 months.
CPI path should become more flat for now but we expect new peaks in early 2023 before a durable decline. Risks to forecasts remain to the upside amid still high and uncertain energy and food prices. After today's release we still expect one more rate hike in September.
In the course of its July forecast update, IMF has come closer to our cautious view for the euro area. Even without further escalation and uncertainties, the G2 economies (euro area, US) face their weakest growth in a decade in 2023. High inflation and restrictive financing conditions have their price. In CE/SEE, key interest rates are already as high as in the "CE/SEE bonanza period" before the Global Financial Crisis. The IMF has slightly improved its forecast for Russia.
In July, ECB opened a new chapter in its monetary policy. After eight years, negative rates policy has come to an end. For the third time in history a bold 50bp hike was delivered plus further determined hikes were announced. Attention is drawn to a new government bond purchase programme TPI, which is supposed to prevent (strong) increases in yields of (indebted) euro countries. We think markets will challenge the ECB ... maybe also courts.
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Raiffeisen Bank International AG
Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Wien
Information pursuant to Articles 13 and 14 of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) on the processing of personal data
We hereby inform you about the processing of your personal data and the data protection claims and rights to which you are entitled. The content and scope of the data processing depends largely on the products and services you have requested or which are agreed with you.
Responsible for data processing:
Raiffeisen Bank International AG (hereinafter referred to as "Bank" or "RBI")
Am Stadtpark 9
Telephone +43 1 71707-0
Contact data of the Data Protection Officer of the Bank:
Phone +43 1 71707-8603
We process the personal data that we receive from you as part of our business relationship. In addition, we process data that we have legitimately received from credit bureaus (CRIF GmbH), debtor directories (Kreditschutzverband von 1870) and from publicly available sources (eg business register, association register, land register or media) or that are provided legitimately by other companies affiliated with the bank.
Personal information includes your personal details and contact information (e.g., name, address, date and place of birth, nationality, etc.) or identity and travel document information (such as signature sample, ID information). In addition, this may include payment and clearing data (eg payment orders, turnover data in payment transactions), credit data (eg type and amount of income, recurring payment obligations for children's education costs, loan repayments, rents), data on marketing and distribution, credit transactions, image and / or sound recordings (eg video and telephone recordings), electronic log and identification data (apps, cookies, etc.), financial identification data (data from credit, debit, prepaid cards) or AML (anti-money laundering) and compliance data and other data comparable to the above categories.
We process your personal data in accordance with the provisions of the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Austrian Data Protection Act 2018.
to fulfill contractual obligations (Article 6 (1) (b) GDPR)
The processing of personal data (Art 4 No. 2 GDPR) is carried out for the provision and brokering of banking, financial services and insurance, leasing and real estate transactions, in particular for the performance of our contracts with you and the execution of your orders as well as for carrying out pre-contractual measures.
The purposes of the data processing are based primarily on the specific product (for example, account, credit, building society savings, securities, deposits, brokerage, debit and credit cards) and may, among others, contain analysis of your financial needs, consulting, asset management , and execution of transactions.
Such data processing takes place, for example, in connection with debit cards (also called "ATM cards"), which RBI makes available to you and with which you are in particular able to execute payment transactions with merchants at POS terminals ("ATM cash registers") and on the internet ( E-commerce payments in the online shop), to withdraw cash at designated ATMs (also called "Bankomat"), and to perform transactions between debit cards ("ZOIN"). Such transactions must be assignable to the banks of the cardholder and the payee in order to enable the settlement of the transactions among each other. Almost all institutions operating in Austria have concluded a contract with the PSA Payment Services Austria GmbH (PSA) for this purpose (PSA contract). The purpose of such PSA contract is to regulate the mutual rights and obligations between each institution and PSA. Moreover in the PSA contract the institutions agree on the conditions under which transactions (eg withdrawals) of foreign bank customers in their own cash dispensers or payment transactions at POS terminals are accepted. PSA is responsible for the technical handling of transactions with usable cards with the institutes. In addition, PSA also operates its own ATMs. In order to process transactions and settle accounts between institutions, institutions must process data of their own clients. The legal basis of the data processing are a variety of laws, such as the Banking Act, the Payment Services Act, the Financial Market Money Laundering Act, etc., to which the contracting parties of the PSA contract are committed and the contract between the institution and its customers (eg current account agreement, card agreement). To exercise your rights in connection with the data processing referred to in this paragraph, please contact RBI.
For credit cards, the exchange of personal data, especially with merchants and account-holding banks is necessary for the execution of the credit card transaction.
Specific details for the purpose of the data processing mentioned herein can be found in the respective contractual documents and terms and conditions.
to fulfill legal obligations (Article 6 (1) (c) GDPR)
The processing of personal data shall only be carried out for the purpose of fulfilling various legal obligations (such as the Banking Act, Financial Market Money Laundering Act, Securities Supervision Act, Stock Exchange Act, etc.) as well as due to regulatory requirements (eg the European Central Bank, the European Banking Authority, the Austrian Financial Market Authority, etc.). which the Bank is subject to as an Austrian credit institution. Examples of such cases are:
as part of your consent (Article 6 (1) (a) GDPR
If you have given us your consent to the processing of your personal data for specific purposes (eg, disclosure of data to recipients named in the consent, notifications via the ELBA mailbox, lotteries), processing will only take place in accordance with the scope and for the purpose as set out in and agreed in the consent form. A given consent may be withdrawn at any time with effect for the future.
Examples of such cases are the evaluation of your data (such as name, age, account turnover data and the like) and the query of external credit databases (Kreditschutzverband von 1870, CRIF GmbH), in order to anticipate your credit rating for credit offers that RBI provides to you.
to safeguard legitimate interests (Article 6 (1) (f) GDPR) in general
If necessary, data processing may be carried out to protect legitimate interests of the Bank or third parties. In the following cases, data processing takes place to safeguard legitimate interests. Examples of such cases are:
to safeguard legitimate interests (Article 6 (1) (f) GDPR) in the marketing of our services
The evaluation of your data processed at RBI for the purpose of
The following data, which either RBI itself has collected itself or which you have transmitted to RBI, will be evaluated:
These data include the personal data and the detailed data of the products, such as the item of transactions, terms, interest, charges, debits, credits and arrears.
If the products brokered are payment instruments, the analysed data also includes: payment behavior, incoming and outgoing payment transactions, recipients and senders, payment service providers, amounts, purpose, payment references, originator references, frequencies and types of money movements, cashless payments, data of the dealers or service providers and information about these closed deals.
Within the Bank, those units or employees, subsidiaries receive your data, as required by them to fulfill their contractual, legal and / or regulatory obligations and legitimate interests. In addition, contractors (especially IT and back-office service providers) will receive your data as long and to the extent as they need the data to perform their respective service. All processors are contractually obliged to treat your data confidentially and to process the data for the provision of the respected services.
If there is a legal or regulatory obligation, public authorities and institutions (European Banking Authority, European Central Bank, Austrian National Bank, Austrian Financial Market Supervisory Authority, tax authorities, etc.) as well as our Bank and auditors may be the recipients of your personal data. With regard to a data transfer to other third parties, we would like to point out that RBI as an Austrian bank is obliged to observe banking secrecy in accordance with § 38 BWG and therefore is obliged to keep confidentiality regarding to all customer-related information and facts that have been entrusted to us or made available due to the business relationship. RBI may only disclose such personal information, if you have exempted us in writing and expressly from banking secrecy, or if the Bank is legally obliged by law to such a disclosure. The recipients of personal data in this context may be other credit and financial institutions or similar entities. We disclose to such recipients only those data as we need in order to conduct the business relationship with you. Depending on the respective contract, these recipients may be eg correspondent banks, stock exchanges, custodian banks, credit bureaus or other companies affiliated with the Bank (due to regulatory or legal obligation).
Data from the video surveillance of RBI can be used on a case by case basis by competent authorities or the court (for evidence in criminal matters), security services (for security purposes), courts (to secure evidence in civil cases), employees, witnesses, victims (under the enforcement of their claims), insurance (exclusively for the settlement of insurance claims), lawyers and other bodies for the purpose of law enforcement.
A transfer of data to third countries (outside the European Economic Area - EEA) will only take place if this will be necessary for the execution of your orders (eg payment and securities orders), or if so required by law or if you have given us your explicit consent.
In addition, data may be transferred to RBI's subsidiaries or processors in third countries or subcontractors of RBI's processors in third countries. These are obliged to comply with European data protection and security standards. Information about this can be obtained from us.
Payments and cash withdrawals with debit and credit cards can lead to the necessary involvement of international card organizations and thus possibly to data processing by these card organizations in third countries. For example, the data protection measures taken by MasterCard ("Binding Corporate Rules") are available at
If so required by law, we will separately provide you with further details.
We process your personal data, as far as necessary, for the whole duration of the entire business relationship (beginning with the conclusion of a contract, its execution and ending with its termination) as well as in accordance with the mandatory storage and documentation obligation as required by law, in particular pursuant to the following Austrian legal provisions: the Companies Code (Unternehmensgesetzbuch, UGB), the Federal Fiscal Code (Bundesabgabenordnung, BAO), the Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz BWG), the Financial Market Money Laundering Act (Finanzmarkt-Geldwäschegesetz, FM-GwG) and the Securities Supervision Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz, WAG).
Moreover, the data storage is also subject to the statutory limitation periods, eg under the Austrian General Civil Code (Allgemeines Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch, ABGB) and may in certain cases last up to 30 years (the most relevant limitation period in practice is 3 years).
Data from the video-surveillance of the Bank will be deleted in principle after 15 days if no longer required for the purposes of video surveillance.
You have the right to access, rectification, erasure or restriction of the processing of your stored data, a right to object to processing and a right to data portability in accordance with the requirements of data protection law. Complaints can be addressed to the Austrian Data Protection Authority, Barichgasse 40-42, 1030 Vienna, Austria, www.dsb.gv.at.
As part of the business relationship, you must provide us with all personal information that is necessary to enter into and to maintain the business relationship with you, and also those data that we are required by law to collect. If you do not provide us with these data, we will generally decline either to conclude or to complete the contract, or we will be unable to execute an existing contract or we would be forced to terminate such contract. However, you are not obliged to give your consent to the processing of data if such data is not necessary for the performance of a contract or is not required by law or regulation.
In general, we do not use fully automated decision-making within the meaning of Article 22 GDPR in order to establish and/or to conduct a business relationship. If we should use such procedures on a case-by-case basis, we will inform you accordingly by separate notice as so provided for by law.
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These cookies are necessary for the basic functions of the website and are used to store your user settings and preferences (e.g. saving your input in form fields to protect against unwanted loss) as well as to enable and secure authentication or ELBA sessions. These cookies assign a randomly generated ID to your browser. The data processing is based on our legitimate interest in the secure design and convenient use of our contents and generally in the provision of our services on the specific website visited. No information about you is collected which is used for marketing and statistical purposes. Furthermore, we may use information for fraud prevention and to ward off service overloading requests (denial of service attacks). This category of cookies cannot be deactivated.
This information is anonymized immediately after the cookie is set respectively the website is visited and enables us to gain knowledge about the use, functionality and user-friendliness of websites and apps, to advertise our content, to place it in a targeted manner and to improve it continuously. We carry out range and performance measurement: We obtain information about the number of website visitors, page views and the usage habits of visitors to a website or app.
You can object to this processing at any time with effect for the future by using this selection option, your browser settings or plug-ins (e.g. http://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout?hl=de). Processing will be carried out until you object to it.
We use personal cookies, pixels and scripts as a way to evaluate the effectiveness and success of our marketing tools and to better align them. These tools are used to draw conclusions on your interests and needs based on the analysis of your behavior, as well as to segment users with the same or similar interests and needs so that we can offer you advertising or content that is target-oriented and tailored to your needs and interests. The processing is carried out for a maximum period of three years or until withdrawal. Withdrawal of consent does not affect the lawfulness of the processing that took place until withdrawal.
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Record on the web server
Every time a user accesses our website and every time a file is retrieved or attempted to be retrieved from the server, data about this process is stored in a log file. For us it is not directly recognizable, which user called upon which data. We also do not try to collect this information. This would only be possible in legally regulated cases and with the help of third parties (e.g. Internet service providers). In detail, the following data record is stored for each retrieval: The IP address, the name of the downloaded file, the date and time of the download, the amount of data transferred, the message as to whether the download was successful and the message as to why a download may have failed, the name of your Internet service provider, if applicable the operating system, the browser software of your computer and the website from which you are visiting us.
The legal basis for the processing of personal data is our legitimate interest (in accordance with Art 6 (1) (f) GDPR). This is to detect, prevent and investigate attacks on our website.
In addition, we process your personal data in special cases on the basis of the legitimate interests of us or legitimated third parties for legal proceedings or on behalf of legally authorized authorities or courts.
We generally store data for a period of three months to guarantee the security of our homepage. A longer storage only takes place as far as this is necessary to investigate determined attacks on our website or to pursue legal claims.
For the above-mentioned purposes, we have your personal data processed by the following service providers: Raiffeisen Informatik GmbH, GRZ IT Center GmbH, Raiffeisen Informatik Center Steiermark GmbH.
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Upon others we collect the following data: visited websites, date and time of the visit, length of stay, browser version, screen resolution, operating system, the country and the referrer, this is the previously visited page from which a page was accessed.
GRZ IT Center GmbH acts as IT service provider for us, processing your data only within the scope of the provision of services.
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Wir sind der etablierte Research-Provider für den Raiffeisen Sektor Österreich. Wir analysieren sowohl die Eurozone als auch die Volkswirtschaft Österreich sowie alle internationalen und am Kapitalmarkt relevanten Themen (Notenbanken, Benchmarkzinsen, Währungen). Zudem analysieren wir ca. 100 internationale/westeuropäische Aktien-Einzeltitel für den österreichischen Raiffeisensektor. Im institutionellen Aktiengeschäft analysieren wir ca. 100 Titel aus Österreich und Zentral- und Osteuropa (CEE). Weiters haben wir in den letzten Jahren ein Immobilien-Research Österreich (inkl. der Bundesländer) etabliert.
Zu unserem Analysespektrum gehört auch die gemeinsame Analyse der Gesamtregion CEE bzw. der Märkte der Raiffeisen Bank International mit unseren Analystenkollegen vor Ort in 13 CEE-Ländern. Wir fungieren auch als erster Ansprechpartner österreichischer, deutschsprachiger und internationaler Medien bei Österreich- und CEE-Themen.
Kunden der Raiffeisen Bankengruppe können in Abstimmung mit ihrem Kundenbetreuer Zugang zu unseren Services erhalten.
We are a diverse team of around 80 analysts based in Austria and 13 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our products and expertise rely on continuous and close collaboration between the research teams in CEE and Vienna. Moreover, we are the exclusive provider to the Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group regarding retail research.
We consider ourselves a leading research boutique focused on CEE, Austria and the euro area. We offer local market expertise plus contact to well-established experts on the ground in CEE and Austria. On a product level, we offer a granular coverage of CEE and the Austrian market and its issuers (Macro, Fixed Income, Equity) with a growing ESG-Focus. Our well-established analyst colleagues from Budapest to Bucharest to Tirana and Moscow will be happy to assist you and provide competent expert advice.
Our international clients (mostly institutional and corporate clients as well as public institutions) can benefit from our wide-ranging research footprint in CEE. Access to our research services can be granted to all RBI corporate clients and all other non-MiFID II regulated clients. Clients subject to MiFID II regulation are kindly asked to approach us via their Capital Market Sales contacts at RBI.