The latest high-frequency data in Q3 points to still strong, but a bit slowed down momentum in exports, industry and retail sales compared to Q2 as pre-pandemic volumes were already reached as of June 2021. 4th wave of pandemic is expected to have only limited downsize effect.
Both the foreign trade deficit and the current account deficit were on an upward trend this year, reaching high levels in Jan-Jul. The large current account deficit and its weak funding structure are vulnerabilities, pointing to a gradual depreciation of the leu going forward.
Inflation soared to 0.9% mom in August, after the very modest growth in July (0.2%), due to a spike in food prices (+2.0% mom), untypical for this time of the year. The monthly dynamics were also confirmed in the annualized figure (4.3%), for which food prices were also to blame.
At the recent meeting, the CBR hiked a key rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The question of ending the tightening cycle remained open. Our baseline scenario includes no further hike(s) this year, current price dynamics make an additional 25bp hike at the October meeting also possible.
CPI surprised again reaching 4.1% vs. expected 3.6%. The price increase was visible across the consumer's basket. Temporary pandemic-related effects play a role but there are also signs of more persistent price pressures. Thus, we put our rate outlook under revision.
The NBU raised the key rate by 50 bp to 8.5%, in line with market expectations. Annual inflation in August was again 10.2%, monthly prices fell by 0.2%. Inflation corresponds to the NBU forecast, so the probability of key rate kept unchanged until the end of 2021 is high.
The MPC did not surprise this week with the decision to leave interest rates unchanged (key rate flat at 0.1%). Meanwhile, comments made by the Governor decreased the probability of an interest rate hike this year again, despite the consecutive upward surprises in CPI.
Usage of Cookies
By clicking "Agree", you enable us to continuously improve our website and create personalized advertisements. By clicking "Decline" you will be redirected to www.rbinternational.com. Under Data-Protection Information you will find detailed information about out data protection policy.
By opening and/or using the information, services, links, functions, applications or programmes (hereinafter: "contents") offered on this website, the user hereby agrees to be bound by the terms and conditions set out below:
The contents offered on this website and subsites (hereinafter: the “RBI Research-Website”) are protected by copyright law. The downloading or storage of applications or programmes contained on the RBI Research-Website and the (complete or partial) reproduction, transmission, modification or linking of the contents of the RBI Research-Website shall only be permitted with the express and written consent of Raiffeisen Bank International AG ("RBI").
The contents of the RBI Research-Website you are seeking to access is for information only and does neither qualify as investment advice nor constitute or form part of any offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments as defined in Article 5 para 1 number 15 of EU Directive 2014/65 (“MiFID II”) in any jurisdiction or jurisdictions, (and must not be considered in any way as an offer or sale in relation to any securities or other financial instrument). In particular, no securities have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and no such securities may be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or exemption from registration under the Securities Act.
RBI has made every effort to ensure reliability in researching the information published on the RBI Research-Website or sent via RBI Research-Website as well as in selecting the source of information used. Nonetheless, RBI does not assume any liability whatsoever for the correctness, completeness, timeliness or uninterrupted availability of the information made available on the RBI Research-Website or as regards the sources of information used.
The information contained on the RBI Research-Website as well as forecasts published on the RBI Research-Website are based on the information available and the market assessment at the point in time stated in the respective publications. Certain information on this website constitutes forward-looking statements. RBI does not assume and hereby as far as possible expressly excludes any liability for the correctness, completeness or actual occurrence of the events described in the forward-looking statements. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Certain financial data (e.g. stock exchange prices) may in some cases only be published after a certain interval of time has lapsed as defined by the data vendor (usually about 15 minutes or previous day end-of-day quotes). Furthermore, please note that many of the times are given in Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).
You agree and acknowledge that the information and statements contained in the materials you are accessing on the RBI Research-Website speak only as of the date of such document and such information and statements will become inaccurate, stale and/or out-of-date thereafter. These materials should not be relied upon at any time for any investment decision.
RBI assumes no responsibility to maintain documents posted on the RBI Research-Website or to update any documents. Therefore, users of the RBI Research-Website acknowledge that the content of documents available on the RBI Research-Website may not show the most recent scenarios, analysis or conclusions.
Users of the RBI Research-Website can access some documents and information without registration requirements and without further barriers (the respective area on the RBI Research-Website is hereinafter referred to as “Unrestricted Area”). By accessing the Unrestricted Area, you agree and acknowledge that the materials on the RBI Research-Website may lawfully be made available in accordance with the laws of the jurisdiction in which you are located.
Other documents are only available to persons who have registered themselves in accordance with the required procedure. The part of the RBI Research-Website which can only be acceded by way of registration is hereinafter referred to as “Restricted Area”.
Due to the laws applicable in some jurisdictions or regulations imposed by capital market or securities authorities, some of the information published on the RBI Research-Website (e.g. stock analyses) is not addressed to private individuals. In order to ensure the enforcement of such local access restrictions, RBI retains the right to take any (technical) measures it may deem suitable for restricting such information or segments of information subject to the aforementioned restrictions. The passing on of information contained on the RBI Research-Website, which is subject to local access restrictions valid in certain countries, to the persons stated in the relevant restrictions may constitute a breach of securities law or of other laws of said countries.
The distribution or dissemination of information published on the RBI Research-Website as well as the purchase and offering of the respective products in certain jurisdictions may be subject to restrictions or additional requirements. Persons who retrieve such information from the RBI Research-Website or into whose possession such information comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. In particular, the products to which such information published on the RBI Research-Website refers, may generally not be purchased or held by U.S. persons (the term “U.S. person” refers to any legal/natural person having its seat/residence in the U.S.A and any other person within the meaning given to it by Regulation S under the Securities Act 1933 as amended).
Users of the Unrestricted Area should be aware that the documents available on this part of the RBI Research-Website are not made available on the basis that any customer relationship is created between RBI and such user solely on the basis of such user having access to the respective documents. The documents available in the Unrestricted Area are intended to be available to users in the European Economic Area and in the United Kingdom.
With the exception of the cases regulated under § 17 of the Austrian E-Commerce Act, RBI does not assume any liability for the content of websites or URLs of other providers to which links are provided. Neither does RBI assume any liability for the uninterrupted availability or full functionality of the links to websites or URLs of third parties.
RBI makes no warranty and will accept no liability for any damages whatsoever (including consequential or indirect damages, or lost profits) relating to the access to the RBI Research-Website, the opening, use or querying of the contents on the RBI Research-Website or relating to the links set up on the RBI Research-Website to websites or URLs of third parties. This applies also in cases in which RBI has been informed about the possibility of incurring such damages.
Furthermore, RBI shall not be liable for technical disruptions such as server breakdowns, operating disruptions or failures of the telecommunications links and other similar events, which could lead to the (temporary) unavailability of the RBI Research-Website as a whole or parts of it.
The content in the Restricted Area of the RBI Research-Website is only available to registered users. By sending the completed online registration form, the user confirms the completeness and correctness of the data given and also confirms having truthfully answered the questions asked. Furthermore, by sending the completed online form, the user hereby declares his or her consent to the electronic processing of his or her registration data by RBI for both internal banking organisational purposes and for transmission to other credit institutions within the Raiffeisen Banking Group, which may in turn also process, pass on or use such data.
RBI retains the right to change and to remove the RBI Research-Website at any time (if necessary also without prior notice), in particular as regards changing existing contents (in full or in part) and adding new contents.
For (authorised) users who use the services of RBI provided on the RBI Research-Website, the General Terms and Conditions of Business, as amended, of RBI shall apply in addition to the terms and conditions of this Disclaimer.
Please also take note of the general information provided pursuant to § 5 of the E-Commerce Act!
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Wien
Information pursuant to Articles 13 and 14 of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) on the processing of personal data
We hereby inform you about the processing of your personal data and the data protection claims and rights to which you are entitled. The content and scope of the data processing depends largely on the products and services you have requested or which are agreed with you.
Responsible for data processing:
Raiffeisen Bank International AG (hereinafter referred to as "Bank" or "RBI")
Am Stadtpark 9
Telephone +43 1 71707-0
Contact data of the Data Protection Officer of the Bank:
Phone +43 1 71707-8603
We process the personal data that we receive from you as part of our business relationship. In addition, we process data that we have legitimately received from credit bureaus (CRIF GmbH), debtor directories (Kreditschutzverband von 1870) and from publicly available sources (eg business register, association register, land register or media) or that are provided legitimately by other companies affiliated with the bank.
Personal information includes your personal details and contact information (e.g., name, address, date and place of birth, nationality, etc.) or identity and travel document information (such as signature sample, ID information). In addition, this may include payment and clearing data (eg payment orders, turnover data in payment transactions), credit data (eg type and amount of income, recurring payment obligations for children's education costs, loan repayments, rents), data on marketing and distribution, credit transactions, image and / or sound recordings (eg video and telephone recordings), electronic log and identification data (apps, cookies, etc.), financial identification data (data from credit, debit, prepaid cards) or AML (anti-money laundering) and compliance data and other data comparable to the above categories.
We process your personal data in accordance with the provisions of the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Austrian Data Protection Act 2018.
to fulfill contractual obligations (Article 6 (1) (b) GDPR)
The processing of personal data (Art 4 No. 2 GDPR) is carried out for the provision and brokering of banking, financial services and insurance, leasing and real estate transactions, in particular for the performance of our contracts with you and the execution of your orders as well as for carrying out pre-contractual measures.
The purposes of the data processing are based primarily on the specific product (for example, account, credit, building society savings, securities, deposits, brokerage, debit and credit cards) and may, among others, contain analysis of your financial needs, consulting, asset management , and execution of transactions.
Such data processing takes place, for example, in connection with debit cards (also called "ATM cards"), which RBI makes available to you and with which you are in particular able to execute payment transactions with merchants at POS terminals ("ATM cash registers") and on the internet ( E-commerce payments in the online shop), to withdraw cash at designated ATMs (also called "Bankomat"), and to perform transactions between debit cards ("ZOIN"). Such transactions must be assignable to the banks of the cardholder and the payee in order to enable the settlement of the transactions among each other. Almost all institutions operating in Austria have concluded a contract with the PSA Payment Services Austria GmbH (PSA) for this purpose (PSA contract). The purpose of such PSA contract is to regulate the mutual rights and obligations between each institution and PSA. Moreover in the PSA contract the institutions agree on the conditions under which transactions (eg withdrawals) of foreign bank customers in their own cash dispensers or payment transactions at POS terminals are accepted. PSA is responsible for the technical handling of transactions with usable cards with the institutes. In addition, PSA also operates its own ATMs. In order to process transactions and settle accounts between institutions, institutions must process data of their own clients. The legal basis of the data processing are a variety of laws, such as the Banking Act, the Payment Services Act, the Financial Market Money Laundering Act, etc., to which the contracting parties of the PSA contract are committed and the contract between the institution and its customers (eg current account agreement, card agreement). To exercise your rights in connection with the data processing referred to in this paragraph, please contact RBI.
For credit cards, the exchange of personal data, especially with merchants and account-holding banks is necessary for the execution of the credit card transaction.
Specific details for the purpose of the data processing mentioned herein can be found in the respective contractual documents and terms and conditions.
to fulfill legal obligations (Article 6 (1) (c) GDPR)
The processing of personal data shall only be carried out for the purpose of fulfilling various legal obligations (such as the Banking Act, Financial Market Money Laundering Act, Securities Supervision Act, Stock Exchange Act, etc.) as well as due to regulatory requirements (eg the European Central Bank, the European Banking Authority, the Austrian Financial Market Authority, etc.). which the Bank is subject to as an Austrian credit institution. Examples of such cases are:
as part of your consent (Article 6 (1) (a) GDPR
If you have given us your consent to the processing of your personal data for specific purposes (eg, disclosure of data to recipients named in the consent, notifications via the ELBA mailbox, lotteries), processing will only take place in accordance with the scope and for the purpose as set out in and agreed in the consent form. A given consent may be withdrawn at any time with effect for the future.
Examples of such cases are the evaluation of your data (such as name, age, account turnover data and the like) and the query of external credit databases (Kreditschutzverband von 1870, CRIF GmbH), in order to anticipate your credit rating for credit offers that RBI provides to you.
to safeguard legitimate interests (Article 6 (1) (f) GDPR) in general
If necessary, data processing may be carried out to protect legitimate interests of the Bank or third parties. In the following cases, data processing takes place to safeguard legitimate interests. Examples of such cases are:
to safeguard legitimate interests (Article 6 (1) (f) GDPR) in the marketing of our services
The evaluation of your data processed at RBI for the purpose of
The following data, which either RBI itself has collected itself or which you have transmitted to RBI, will be evaluated:
These data include the personal data and the detailed data of the products, such as the item of transactions, terms, interest, charges, debits, credits and arrears.
If the products brokered are payment instruments, the analysed data also includes: payment behavior, incoming and outgoing payment transactions, recipients and senders, payment service providers, amounts, purpose, payment references, originator references, frequencies and types of money movements, cashless payments, data of the dealers or service providers and information about these closed deals.
Within the Bank, those units or employees, subsidiaries receive your data, as required by them to fulfill their contractual, legal and / or regulatory obligations and legitimate interests. In addition, contractors (especially IT and back-office service providers) will receive your data as long and to the extent as they need the data to perform their respective service. All processors are contractually obliged to treat your data confidentially and to process the data for the provision of the respected services.
If there is a legal or regulatory obligation, public authorities and institutions (European Banking Authority, European Central Bank, Austrian National Bank, Austrian Financial Market Supervisory Authority, tax authorities, etc.) as well as our Bank and auditors may be the recipients of your personal data. With regard to a data transfer to other third parties, we would like to point out that RBI as an Austrian bank is obliged to observe banking secrecy in accordance with § 38 BWG and therefore is obliged to keep confidentiality regarding to all customer-related information and facts that have been entrusted to us or made available due to the business relationship. RBI may only disclose such personal information, if you have exempted us in writing and expressly from banking secrecy, or if the Bank is legally obliged by law to such a disclosure. The recipients of personal data in this context may be other credit and financial institutions or similar entities. We disclose to such recipients only those data as we need in order to conduct the business relationship with you. Depending on the respective contract, these recipients may be eg correspondent banks, stock exchanges, custodian banks, credit bureaus or other companies affiliated with the Bank (due to regulatory or legal obligation).
Data from the video surveillance of RBI can be used on a case by case basis by competent authorities or the court (for evidence in criminal matters), security services (for security purposes), courts (to secure evidence in civil cases), employees, witnesses, victims (under the enforcement of their claims), insurance (exclusively for the settlement of insurance claims), lawyers and other bodies for the purpose of law enforcement.
A transfer of data to third countries (outside the European Economic Area - EEA) will only take place if this will be necessary for the execution of your orders (eg payment and securities orders), or if so required by law or if you have given us your explicit consent.
In addition, data may be transferred to RBI's subsidiaries or processors in third countries or subcontractors of RBI's processors in third countries. These are obliged to comply with European data protection and security standards. Information about this can be obtained from us.
Payments and cash withdrawals with debit and credit cards can lead to the necessary involvement of international card organizations and thus possibly to data processing by these card organizations in third countries. For example, the data protection measures taken by MasterCard ("Binding Corporate Rules") are available at
If so required by law, we will separately provide you with further details.
We process your personal data, as far as necessary, for the whole duration of the entire business relationship (beginning with the conclusion of a contract, its execution and ending with its termination) as well as in accordance with the mandatory storage and documentation obligation as required by law, in particular pursuant to the following Austrian legal provisions: the Companies Code (Unternehmensgesetzbuch, UGB), the Federal Fiscal Code (Bundesabgabenordnung, BAO), the Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz BWG), the Financial Market Money Laundering Act (Finanzmarkt-Geldwäschegesetz, FM-GwG) and the Securities Supervision Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz, WAG).
Moreover, the data storage is also subject to the statutory limitation periods, eg under the Austrian General Civil Code (Allgemeines Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch, ABGB) and may in certain cases last up to 30 years (the most relevant limitation period in practice is 3 years).
Data from the video-surveillance of the Bank will be deleted in principle after 15 days if no longer required for the purposes of video surveillance.
You have the right to access, rectification, erasure or restriction of the processing of your stored data, a right to object to processing and a right to data portability in accordance with the requirements of data protection law. Complaints can be addressed to the Austrian Data Protection Authority, Barichgasse 40-42, 1030 Vienna, Austria, www.dsb.gv.at.
As part of the business relationship, you must provide us with all personal information that is necessary to enter into and to maintain the business relationship with you, and also those data that we are required by law to collect. If you do not provide us with these data, we will generally decline either to conclude or to complete the contract, or we will be unable to execute an existing contract or we would be forced to terminate such contract. However, you are not obliged to give your consent to the processing of data if such data is not necessary for the performance of a contract or is not required by law or regulation.
In general, we do not use fully automated decision-making within the meaning of Article 22 GDPR in order to establish and/or to conduct a business relationship. If we should use such procedures on a case-by-case basis, we will inform you accordingly by separate notice as so provided for by law.
Technically required cookies
These cookies are necessary for the basic functions of the website and are used to store your user settings and preferences (e.g. saving your input in form fields to protect against unwanted loss) as well as to enable and secure authentication or ELBA sessions. These cookies assign a randomly generated ID to your browser. The data processing is based on our legitimate interest in the secure design and convenient use of our contents and generally in the provision of our services on the specific website visited. No information about you is collected which is used for marketing and statistical purposes. Furthermore, we may use information for fraud prevention and to ward off service overloading requests (denial of service attacks). This category of cookies cannot be deactivated.
This information is anonymized immediately after the cookie is set respectively the website is visited and enables us to gain knowledge about the use, functionality and user-friendliness of websites and apps, to advertise our content, to place it in a targeted manner and to improve it continuously. We carry out range and performance measurement: We obtain information about the number of website visitors, page views and the usage habits of visitors to a website or app.
You can object to this processing at any time with effect for the future by using this selection option, your browser settings or plug-ins (e.g. http://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout?hl=de). Processing will be carried out until you object to it.
We use personal cookies, pixels and scripts as a way to evaluate the effectiveness and success of our marketing tools and to better align them. These tools are used to draw conclusions on your interests and needs based on the analysis of your behavior, as well as to segment users with the same or similar interests and needs so that we can offer you advertising or content that is target-oriented and tailored to your needs and interests. The processing is carried out for a maximum period of three years or until withdrawal. Withdrawal of consent does not affect the lawfulness of the processing that took place until withdrawal.
This declaration of consent applies to the controller named in the imprint and companies associated with this controller, which are linked in the introduction above.
Record on the web server
Every time a user accesses our website and every time a file is retrieved or attempted to be retrieved from the server, data about this process is stored in a log file. For us it is not directly recognizable, which user called upon which data. We also do not try to collect this information. This would only be possible in legally regulated cases and with the help of third parties (e.g. Internet service providers). In detail, the following data record is stored for each retrieval: The IP address, the name of the downloaded file, the date and time of the download, the amount of data transferred, the message as to whether the download was successful and the message as to why a download may have failed, the name of your Internet service provider, if applicable the operating system, the browser software of your computer and the website from which you are visiting us.
The legal basis for the processing of personal data is our legitimate interest (in accordance with Art 6 (1) (f) GDPR). This is to detect, prevent and investigate attacks on our website.
In addition, we process your personal data in special cases on the basis of the legitimate interests of us or legitimated third parties for legal proceedings or on behalf of legally authorized authorities or courts.
We generally store data for a period of three months to guarantee the security of our homepage. A longer storage only takes place as far as this is necessary to investigate determined attacks on our website or to pursue legal claims.
For the above-mentioned purposes, we have your personal data processed by the following service providers: Raiffeisen Informatik GmbH, GRZ IT Center GmbH, Raiffeisen Informatik Center Steiermark GmbH.
Raiffeisen Web Analytics
This website uses the "Raiffeisen Web Analytics" software for anonymous analysis of website usage. Your IP address will be made anonymous for analysis purposes by deleting the last 8 bits immediately when a website is accessed. For this purpose Cookies are used which enable an analysis of the website usage by users. Through the evaluation of this data valuable knowledge about the needs of these users can be gained. This knowledge contributes to further improving the quality of our offer. You can prevent this by setting up your browser in a manner that no Cookies are saved.
Upon others we collect the following data: visited websites, date and time of the visit, length of stay, browser version, screen resolution, operating system, the country and the referrer, this is the previously visited page from which a page was accessed.
GRZ IT Center GmbH acts as IT service provider for us, processing your data only within the scope of the provision of services.
On our website we use the service Google Maps API. This service is a service of Google, Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA. By integrating the service on our website, at least the following data are transmitted to Google, Inc.: IP address, time of visit of the website, screen resolution of the visitor, URL of the website (referrer), the identification of the browser (user agent) and search terms. The data transfer is independent of whether you have a Google account that you are logged in or whether you do not have a Google user account. If you are logged in, the data will be assigned with your account. If you do not wish assignment to your profile, you must log out before activating the button. Google, Inc. stores this data as usage profiles and uses them for the purposes of advertising, market research and/or demand-oriented design of its website. You have the right to object to the creation of these user profiles, whereby you must contact Google Inc. to exercise this right. For more information about the purpose and scope of data collection and processing by Google, Inc., please contact www.google.at/intl/de/policies/privacy/. We do not process the affected data.
Wir sind der etablierte Research-Provider für den Raiffeisen Sektor Österreich. Wir analysieren sowohl die Eurozone als auch die Volkswirtschaft Österreich sowie alle internationalen und am Kapitalmarkt relevanten Themen (Notenbanken, Benchmarkzinsen, Währungen). Zudem analysieren wir ca. 100 internationale/westeuropäische Aktien-Einzeltitel für den österreichischen Raiffeisensektor. Im institutionellen Aktiengeschäft analysieren wir ca. 100 Titel aus Österreich und Zentral- und Osteuropa (CEE). Weiters haben wir in den letzten Jahren ein Immobilien-Research Österreich (inkl. der Bundesländer) etabliert.
Zu unserem Analysespektrum gehört auch die gemeinsame Analyse der Gesamtregion CEE bzw. der Märkte der Raiffeisen Bank International mit unseren Analystenkollegen vor Ort in 13 CEE-Ländern. Wir fungieren auch als erster Ansprechpartner österreichischer, deutschsprachiger und internationaler Medien bei Österreich- und CEE-Themen.
Kunden der Raiffeisen Bankengruppe können in Abstimmung mit ihrem Kundenbetreuer Zugang zu unseren Services erhalten.
We are a diverse team of ~80 analysts based in Austria and 13 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our products and expertise do rely on continuous and close collaboration between the research teams in CEE and Vienna. Moreover, we are the exclusive Research provider to Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group in retail research.
We consider us as a leading Research boutique focused on CEE, Austria and the euro area. We offer local market expertise plus contact to well-established experts on the ground in CEE and Austria. On a product level we offer a granular coverage of CEE and Austrian market/issuers (Macro, Fixed Income, Equity) with a growing ESG-Focus. Our well-established analyst colleagues from Budapest to Bucharest, from Tirana to Moscow will certainly be happy to update you and provide competent expert advice.
Our international clients (institutional clients, corporate clients, public institutions, etc.) can profit from our wide-ranging research footprint in CEE. Access to our Research services can be granted to all RBI corporate clients and all other non-MiFID II regulated clients (Link registration). Clients subject to MiFID II regulation may approach us via our Capital Market Sales colleagues.