Albania Watch: The return of consumer spending

18 June 2021 15:13 CEST

The absence of a second lockdown helped the economy to continue its steady recovery. Hence, retail sales increased by 3.6% yoy in the first quarter of 2021.

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Ukraine Watch: Key rate kept unchanged at 7.5%, inflation spike seen temporary

18 June 2021 07:30 CEST

The Central Bank kept the rate unchanged at 7.5%, showing confidence that the current spike in inflation of 9.5% is of a temporary nature. Economic forecasts were not changed. However, the next meeting on 22 July might show more decisive action and update macroeconomic forecasts.

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Slovakia Economic Insights: The name of the game - FUNDS

17 June 2021 17:26 CEST

With the increasing ratio of vaccinated people, attention starts to focus on next steps after COVID-19. Drawing EU Next Generation and MFF funds will boost investments in Slovakia for the next two years. The main objective is to narrow the economic gap between EU and Slovakia.

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Real estate outlook Austria: Divergence & balcony premium in Corona year 2020

17 June 2021 13:34 CEST

The Corona recession has further fuelled the Austrian residential property market. Detailed data show: Already expensive regions posted above-average price growth, so continuity was maintained with respect to the continued (regional) divergence. Moving a level below the federal states, it becomes obvious that “second-tier” districts were able to benefit more than the absolute periphery, whilst the desire for outdoor space caused the “balcony premium” to rise. Prices and housing loans are increasing in unison, the latter partly with increasingly challenging conditions. Regulatory steps can be expected.

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Russia Watch: US-Russia summit with low market impact, mid-term predictability

17 June 2021 07:30 CEST

Expectations for substantial progress in US-Russian relations were low, while markets have not been impacted much. Relations will remain complex with risks of setbacks and moderate sanction tightening, while there is a chance to have some mid-term predictability in place.

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Romania Watch: Large current account deficit persisted in April

14 June 2021 17:32 CEST

Both the foreign trade and the current account deficits remained elevated in April, following the increases recorded in Q1 2021 from Q4 2020. As a result the current account deficit in 2021 might exceed our forecast of 6.0% of GDP.

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Russia Watch: Not the last (bold) tightening step, markets reprice rate path

14 June 2021 07:46 CEST

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) proceeded with a 50bp hike at last Friday's policy meeting. This notably bold step is aimed at calming demand and combatting elevated inflation (CPI 6% yoy in May). The CBR is set to continue its tightening course already at the July meeting.

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