Wide Angle Shot: War in Ukraine - investing as we did post-COVID ahead!

Gunter DEUBER FEBRUARY 21, 2024 22:25 CET

Aside from the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are manageable in the short and medium term, both in Europe and globally. However, the emerging "great power rivalry" with Russia in Europe implies long-term investment requirements that the EU hardly seems able to meet in the current setting. Mutually financed (national) investments in the defense sector should be worth considering - if we accept the lessons of history and are serious about defense spending of 3-4% of economic output (in large EU countries).

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Serbia Watch: Base effect backed inflation deceleration to 6.4% yoy in January

Ljiljana GRUBIC FEBRUARY 19, 2024 13:55 CET

The monthly dynamics in retail prices accelerated moderately in January 2024 (+0.3% mom) after 0.1% mom in December 2023. The annualized print slowed to 6.4% yoy, down from 7.6% yoy in December 2023.

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Czechia Watch: January re-pricing was moderate

Vratislav ZAMIS FEBRUARY 16, 2024 10:12 CET

The long discussions about the January inflation rate are over. On Thursday, the Czech Statistical Office published that the price level rose by 2.3% yoy, which is significantly lower than the figure expected by our forecast and the market.

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The Green Deal - 02/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER FEBRUARY 14, 2024 11:11 CET

The start to the year for the ESG bond market was characterized by solid momentum on the primary market side. The increasing investor preference for the "oldest" of the ESG bond classes means that green bonds continue to dominate the EUR ESG market at the start of 2024. SSA issuers in particular stand out. On the secondary market side, yield fluctuations dominate as ESG and credit risk appear to be more peripheral topics. Otherwise, the ECB (further climate measures) and the EU (agreement on the regulation of ESG rating agencies) are driving the news flow.

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Ukraine Watch: Contrary to expectations, inflation remained on a declining path

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN FEBRUARY 13, 2024 13:13 CET

Inflation continued its downward trend, falling to a three-year minimum of 4.7% yoy in January. Food prices partially ignored seasonal patterns, and caused an expansion of supply. Limited demand, frozen tariffs, relatively stable FX limiting an upturn in prices as well.

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Poland Watch: NBP Governor favours no easing at all in 2024

Dorota STRAUCH FEBRUARY 09, 2024 12:49 CET

Despite no rate change, the MPC decision this week did bring some surprises including the Governor's view that rates might remain unchanged this year. However, we still await the key meeting in March and leave our forecast unchanged: minor 50bp cuts in total in H2.

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Czechia Watch: CNB bets on rapid decline in inflation, cuts rates by 50bps

Vratislav ZAMIS FEBRUARY 09, 2024 08:22 CET

At Thursday's monetary policy meeting, the CNB bank board decided to cut rates by 50bps. The reason for the faster rate cut than expected by our and market forecasts is mainly due to the high degree of certainty about January inflation, which the CNB expects to head towards 3%.

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