Czechia Watch: Month-on-month inflation stagnation

Martin KRON JUNE 11, 2024 17:41 CEST

After rising to 2.9% yoy in April, CPI fell to 2.6% in May. Food prices, the main reason for the April rise in inflation, had the opposite effect this time. Following the CPI release, we still expect the CNB to cut rates by 50bps in June, but with a 25bps cut also very likely.

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ECB Watch: Rapid ascent, slow descent

Franz ZOBL JUNE 06, 2024 15:58 CEST

It has happened! After increasing key interest rates by 450 basis points over the past two years, the ECB has decided to revert course and decrease key interest rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting. While being cautious in giving too much forward guidance, it is likely that the way down will be much slower than the way up. The ECB's new set of economic forecasts show a similar outlook compared to March with somewhat higher growth and inflation.

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ECB Watch: The path beyond June

Franz ZOBL JUNE 04, 2024 07:18 CEST

Anything but a rate cut at the June ECB meeting would be a big surprise. Given how well the ECB has prepared markets and analysts for its change of course, it's natural that most attention is already centered around the question: what's next? ECB Governing Council members have so far been eager to emphasize that the path beyond June is uncertain. We attempt to bring some light into the dark, by sketching scearios for the future path the ECB might take. Knowing that the ECB's path is data-dependent, we still think that our long held view of a cautious quarterly rate cutting cycle by the ECB is the most likely outcome.

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Croatia Watch: Another strong performance

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC MAY 28, 2024 14:34 CEST

At the beginning of 2024, Croatia continued to record solid growth rates, among the highest in the EU. Although the dynamics of annual and quarterly growth has slowed down slightly, economic activity is still strongly supported by domestic demand. On the other hand, net foreign demand acted in the opposite direction, primarily as a result of decline in exports of services.

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The Green Deal - 05/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER MAY 28, 2024 13:01 CEST

On the primary market side, April and May could hardly have been more contrasting. While April volumes were disappointing and also fell yoy, May brought us almost record volumes for green bonds. The secondary market remains unchanged --> greeniums are hard to find. While ESMA has specified ESG terminology for funds, SLB products are struggling, partly due to the lack of concrete standards.

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Belarus Watch: Prices stand still

Casper ENGELEN MAY 16, 2024 15:01 CEST

For the third month in a row, the annual CPI remained steady at 5.6%. This low inflation was attributed to the fragile balance in domestic FX and consumer markets, along with the economic support from Russia. These factors have collectively contributed to price stability.

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Wide Angle Shot: Global trade amid crises and rising protectionism

Amadea HIESS MAY 15, 2024 10:59 CEST

The global trade landscape has been significantly impacted by the pandemic, war, and growing protectionism. While these factors have led to inefficiencies, de-risking of global value chains might also present an opportunity for the CE/SEE region.

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