Belarus Watch: Prices stand still

Casper ENGELEN MAY 16, 2024 15:01 CEST

For the third month in a row, the annual CPI remained steady at 5.6%. This low inflation was attributed to the fragile balance in domestic FX and consumer markets, along with the economic support from Russia. These factors have collectively contributed to price stability.

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Wide Angle Shot: Global trade amid crises and rising protectionism

Amadea HIESS MAY 15, 2024 10:59 CEST

The global trade landscape has been significantly impacted by the pandemic, war, and growing protectionism. While these factors have led to inefficiencies, de-risking of global value chains might also present an opportunity for the CE/SEE region.

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Ukraine Watch: Has inflation finally bottomed out?

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN MAY 14, 2024 09:34 CEST

Inflation brought another surprise to the market with just 0.2% mom and an unchanged annualized CPI at 3.2% yoy in April. But core inflation denoted a more visible acceleration (4.4% yoy), showing some potential for pro-inflationary factors. We maintain our inflation forecast.

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Serbia Watch: Monthly inflation accelerated its pace again in May

Ljiljana GRUBIC MAY 13, 2024 13:51 CEST

The monthly dynamics in retail prices accelerated again in April (+0.7% mom), after the 0.3% mom increase in March, due to increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8% mom) and transport prices (+1.7% mom). The annualized print remained unchanged at 5% yoy.

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Serbia Watch: Key rate flat at 6.5%, no forward guidance for the next meeting

Ljiljana GRUBIC MAY 10, 2024 13:34 CEST

The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key rate at 6.5%, the tenth month in a row, amidst still elevated (though falling) global inflation risks. While a rate cut could be made as soon as in June, we also see risks of a delay until July.

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Czechia Watch: CNB cuts rates by 50bp again, koruna below 25 EUR/CZK

Martin KRON MAY 03, 2024 08:12 CEST

The CNB Bank Board cut interest rates by 50bp for the third time in a row, which was the consensus among analysts ahead of the meeting. All 7 members of the Bank Board were in favour of the move.

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CE Watch: 20 years EU membership - Bond market integration

Stephan IMRE MAY 02, 2024 16:59 CEST

The integration of the government bond markets of the CE/SEE NMS with the core markets in the EU is a milestone on the way to a more developed economy. While integration, as measured by price movements vis-à-vis the reference market, can be quickly reversed in times of crisis, the recent pandemic has shown that targeted policy measures can prevent renewed fragmentation. Within the Visegrád countries, the Czech Republic has a high degree of bond market integration, while high beta names such as Romania, but also Hungary, remain sensitive. On the other hand, as part of a quantity-based integration analysis, non-resident holdings have not changed too much since the euro area sovereign debt crisis due to the phenomenal home bias of investors.

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