Ukraine Watch: April inflation slightly lower, key rate likely hiked again

12 May 2021 10:59 CEST

CPI growth slowed down a bit in April, reaching 0.7% mom. The yearly inflation rate at 8.4% yoy remains above the target corridor without signs of coming back. It is unlikely that the data for May will be a negative surprise, forcing the NBU to raise its key rate again in June.

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Russia Watch: CPI is slowly decelerating, but still more rate hikes ahead

11 May 2021 15:14 CEST

In April, CPI slowed down to 0.6% mom and 5.5% yoy. Besides a considerable drop in yoy terms amid the high base effect, monthly dynamics decelerated on the fading of a spike in food prices. CBR combats inflationary risks with past and expected further rate hikes.

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CE Watch: Inflation spike confirmed and above expectations

11 May 2021 13:45 CEST

CPI in Czechia unexpectedly breached 3% amid rising prices of non-core items. While there are also upward risks to core inflation, we expect them to be temporary.

In Hungary, CPI also surprised but core inflation seems more under control for now, while risks lie in medium term.

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Ukraine Watch: Real sector data shows improvement despite restrictions

07 May 2021 15:55 CEST

In March sectoral indices reflected mixed trends, with index of key sector output remaining broadly unchanged (-0.1% yoy). Retail trade posted impressive growth, while construction shrank considerably. Industrial production rose marginally, while agricultural production declined.

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Serbia Watch: GDP flash estimate in the green in Q1

05 May 2021 13:32 CEST

As per flash estimate, GDP recorded the first positive growth in real terms since the outbreak of the health crisis in Q1 20 (+5.2% yoy). In Q1 2021 GDP growth recorded +1.2% yoy, supported by the expansionary fiscal and monetary policy and fewer restrictions.

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CEE Watch: PMIs again underline supply barriers amid strong demand

04 May 2021 13:42 CEST

Slightly mixed results in April Manufacturing PMIs in the region do not alter ongoing strong growth trends — rise in output remains constrained by supply-side factors leading to record high price pressures.

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Ukraine Economic Insights: Slow vaccination and spike in inflation

03 May 2021 20:51 CEST

A third pandemic wave and a slow vaccination weigh on Q1 growth. Still, Ukraine's economy is seen to grow almost 4% in 2021. Inflation skyrocketed to almost double digits, which may trigger additional rate hikes. Lack of IMF progress and geopolitics pose challenges 2021.

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