Bosnia a. H. Watch: Strong recovery in real sector continues in Q3

16 September 2021 11:23 CEST

The latest high-frequency data in Q3 points to still strong, but a bit slowed down momentum in exports, industry and retail sales compared to Q2 as pre-pandemic volumes were already reached as of June 2021. 4th wave of pandemic is expected to have only limited downsize effect.

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Romania Watch: Large current account deficit of 7.2% of GDP during January-July

14 September 2021 08:48 CEST

Both the foreign trade deficit and the current account deficit were on an upward trend this year, reaching high levels in Jan-Jul. The large current account deficit and its weak funding structure are vulnerabilities, pointing to a gradual depreciation of the leu going forward.

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Serbia Watch: Food prices pushed annual inflation to 4.3% in August

13 September 2021 15:38 CEST

Inflation soared to 0.9% mom in August, after the very modest growth in July (0.2%), due to a spike in food prices (+2.0% mom), untypical for this time of the year. The monthly dynamics were also confirmed in the annualized figure (4.3%), for which food prices were also to blame.

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Russia Watch: CBR proceeded with a modest hike of 25bp

10 September 2021 16:28 CEST

At the recent meeting, the CBR hiked a key rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The question of ending the tightening cycle remained open. Our baseline scenario includes no further hike(s) this year, current price dynamics make an additional 25bp hike at the October meeting also possible.

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Czechia Watch: Another inflation surprise adds pressure on CNB

10 September 2021 15:29 CEST

CPI surprised again reaching 4.1% vs. expected 3.6%. The price increase was visible across the consumer's basket. Temporary pandemic-related effects play a role but there are also signs of more persistent price pressures. Thus, we put our rate outlook under revision.

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Ukraine Watch: Key Rate hiked, inflation stabilizing

10 September 2021 14:23 CEST

The NBU raised the key rate by 50 bp to 8.5%, in line with market expectations. Annual inflation in August was again 10.2%, monthly prices fell by 0.2%. Inflation corresponds to the NBU forecast, so the probability of key rate kept unchanged until the end of 2021 is high.

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Poland Watch: Rate hike outlook delayed again?

10 September 2021 07:41 CEST

The MPC did not surprise this week with the decision to leave interest rates unchanged (key rate flat at 0.1%). Meanwhile, comments made by the Governor decreased the probability of an interest rate hike this year again, despite the consecutive upward surprises in CPI.

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