Wide Angle Shot: NGEU and its purpose in CE/SEE and beyond

January 24, 2022 06:38 CET

The NGEU instrument goes beyond post-crisis reconstruction. It offers a lot of potential to overcome dividing lines in Europe (East/West, South/North). Is it also turning from a small scale instrument into a big one, as the EIB used to do? Comprehensive assessments will be needed in the mid-2020s to make meaningful decisions in this respect.

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Wide Angle Shot: Monetary policy on "new" conventional paths in 2022/23?

January 21, 2022 08:38 CET

Inflationary pressure should ease in the US in 2022, not so inside the euro area. The more stubborn inflation remains, the more central banks have to take their inflation fighting mandate seriously. We see autumn 2022 as decisive here because long-term effects in price trends will become more visible here. This could also impact on ECB's monetary policy going forward. Contrary to ECB the Fed already sees a different medium-term inflation trend around the corner.

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Ukraine Watch: Another key rate hike in face of increasing geopolitical risks

January 20, 2022 16:39 CET

On the back of the geopolitical uncertainty and various prolonged effects on the supply and demand side, the National bank of Ukraine increased the key rate by 100bp to 10%. We updated our key rate forecast and expect 10.5% by the end of 2022 and 8.0% (eop) in 2023.

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Belarus Watch: GDP on a declining path, sanctions-hit still ahead

January 18, 2022 16:11 CET

Despite Western sanctions pressure, Belarus' GDP grew by 2.3% in 2021. At the same time, the former GDP supporters such as domestic consumption and agriculture lost their influence, while industrial output and foreign trade became the main drivers of GDP growth in the past year.

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Serbia Watch: NBS opens new year with unchanged benchmark rate

January 13, 2022 13:44 CET

On today’s key rate-setting session, unsurprisingly, the Executive Board of the NBS left the benchmark rate flat at 1%, while endorsing its decision on continued monetary conditions tightening via repo rate growth.

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Serbia Watch: Cap on key food prices growth slowed inflation in December

January 12, 2022 14:25 CET

Today's CPI release proved that govt's decision on capping the prices of the basic foodstuff for 60 days proved to be a good choice (at least when it comes to current inflation) as the monthly inflation rate slowed the dynamics to 0.4% mom in December and 7.9% yoy.

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Russia/EE Watch: How much diplomatic progress feasible — short- & medium-term?

January 12, 2022 13:47 CET

The much-awaited "week of diplomacy" on the Ukraine issue and beyond between Russia, Western states and relevant security bodies has begun. At the same time, events in Kazakhstan have provided additional impetus. In the following we analyze both subjects and relevant connecting lines.

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