Ukraine Watch: Inflation acceleration lowers chances for monetary easing

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN SEPTEMBER 11, 2024 12:05 CEST

Inflation accelerated quite strongly in August to 7.5% yoy, exceeding our and market expectations. Core inflation also accelerated, reflecting the impact of several pro-inflationary factors. We have increased our inflation forecast for the end of 2024.

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Czechia Watch: Inflation remains steady

Martin KRON SEPTEMBER 11, 2024 09:09 CEST

The latest figures on domestic inflation have come as a surprise, with consumer prices rising by 0.3% month-on-month in August (2.2% yoy), in contrast to the expectations of both our forecast and the market.

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Wide Angle Shot: ‘"Excess or shortfall" profits of Austrian banks?

Werner SCHMITZER SEPTEMBER 04, 2024 07:00 CEST

Austrian banks have posted bumper profits in the last two years according to various metrics. Calls for the taxation of ‘excess profits’ have been raised in the public recent weeks. The debate is very much focussed on the short-term profit development. However, the long-term economic perspective, the challenging last decade for European and Austrian lenders, the sobering economic framework conditions in the Austrian economy plus the banking business outlook suggest a more differentiated view in regard to supposed ‘excess profits’.

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Croatia Watch: GDP déjà vu

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC AUGUST 28, 2024 10:52 CEST

In Q2 24, Croatia continued to record solid growth rates that are among the highest in the EU. Although the pace of annual and quarterly growth has slowed down slightly, economic activity continues to be strongly supported by domestic demand. On the other hand, net foreign demand acted in the opposite direction yet again.

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Bosnia a. H. Watch: Another Banking Sector Record Year in 2024?!

Ivona ZAMETICA AUGUST 27, 2024 10:38 CEST

Different trends in high-frequency economic indicators did not affect the B&H banking sector performance, as the sector reported a new record being on track in the context of net profit, loan portfolio and dynamics of deposits, whilst showing a record low NPL level in H1 2024.

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Fed/ECB Watch: Wait a minute

Franz ZOBL AUGUST 22, 2024 17:48 CEST

July's central bank minutes brought some surprises. The Fed was very outspoken about a September rate cut already in its July meeting, which should make an "unofficial" announcement at tomorrow's Jackson Hole meeting a pure formality. Moreover, the Fed's discussion was mainly centred around the labour market and inflation moved into the background. This is different at the ECB, where upside risks to inflation dominated the July meeting. Still, September is seen as a "good time to re-evaluate the level of monetary policy restriction". The ECB seems to have a strong preference for a cautious approach, while "many" FOMC members are worried about doing "too late or too little".

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Ukraine Watch: Monthly update – economy in war (August 2024)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN AUGUST 20, 2024 15:35 CEST

The government agreed with Eurobond holders on a restructuring, thus considerably lowering debt servicing costs over the coming few years. The NBU expectedly kept its key rate unchanged at 13% with inflation remaining on a growing trajectory. An unexpected small improvement was denoted in business sentiment and in the consumer confidence index. Meanwhile, NBU reserves followed a continuing moderate decline, while we noticed an improvement in the balance of payments over June. Banks maintained their high profitability in June.

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