The Green Deal - 09/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER SEPTEMBER 13, 2024 13:11 CEST

It's business as usual: ESG primary market issues are met with solid demand, but the market continues to be dominated by green bonds while other ESG bond classes are having a much harder time. On the secondary market, the “greenium” remains manageable to non-existent. In this edition, we also take a look at who is still investing in coal, gas and oil, how companies' CO2 targets are developing and examine ESG issuance by Slovenia and CEZ from our region.

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Austria Watch: Endless recession or the end of the recession?

Gunter DEUBER SEPTEMBER 13, 2024 07:54 CEST

Compared to the euro area a tepid recovery will not materialize in the Austrian economy in 2024. Instead, another year of contraction is on the horizon. We now expect GDP to drop by -0.5% this year (previous forecast: +0.2%). Austria is once again one of the laggards of the euro bloc (incl. Germany, Finland, Baltics). Overall, the protracted economic weakness is not a European phenomenon, but an Austrian problem. Following two "lost years" GDP levels of mid-2022 — the previous peak — are not expected to be reached again until 2026.

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ECB Watch: the direction is clear the pace is not

Franz ZOBL SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 16:06 CEST

An interest rate cut of 25 basis points and a reduction in the key rate corridor are the highlights of today's ECB meeting. As expected, there were no clear signals on the pace of future rate cuts. The combination of prolonged economic weakness and persistent service price inflation does not present the ECB with an easy task. We take no signals from today's interest rate meeting to change our expectation of a rate cut in December - and none in October.

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Serbia Watch: Key rate cut by 25bp to 5.75%

Ljiljana GRUBIC SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 13:18 CEST

Following the June and July rate cuts as well as a pause in August, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) cut again the key rate by 25bp to 5.75%. We expect further cuts (one or two) still this year.

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Ukraine Watch: Inflation acceleration lowers chances for monetary easing

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN SEPTEMBER 11, 2024 12:05 CEST

Inflation accelerated quite strongly in August to 7.5% yoy, exceeding our and market expectations. Core inflation also accelerated, reflecting the impact of several pro-inflationary factors. We have increased our inflation forecast for the end of 2024.

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Czechia Watch: Inflation remains steady

Martin KRON SEPTEMBER 11, 2024 09:09 CEST

The latest figures on domestic inflation have come as a surprise, with consumer prices rising by 0.3% month-on-month in August (2.2% yoy), in contrast to the expectations of both our forecast and the market.

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Wide Angle Shot: ‘"Excess or shortfall" profits of Austrian banks?

Werner SCHMITZER SEPTEMBER 04, 2024 07:00 CEST

Austrian banks have posted bumper profits in the last two years according to various metrics. Calls for the taxation of ‘excess profits’ have been raised in the public recent weeks. The debate is very much focussed on the short-term profit development. However, the long-term economic perspective, the challenging last decade for European and Austrian lenders, the sobering economic framework conditions in the Austrian economy plus the banking business outlook suggest a more differentiated view in regard to supposed ‘excess profits’.

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