Ukraine Watch: weekly update – economy in war (week 82)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN SEPTEMBER 22, 2023 14:50 CEST

The thirtieth week of the second year of the war brought the submission of the 2024 budget to the parliament. Banks reported additional profits from their operating activity in July, while the government moves closer to the imposition of additional tax on banks’ profits. The FX market continues to wait for hryvnia devaluation, while bond yields have not dropped in par with the latest key rate decision by the NBU.

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Spotlight: First Tin - Projects on track towards investment readiness

Oleg GALBUR SEPTEMBER 22, 2023 10:56 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

  • First Tin is a tin mine developing company with a portfolio of two near-term high-margin projects located in low-risk jurisdictions (Germany and Australia) that together could annually produce ca. 6,000 tons of tin. First Tin's assets represent the 5th largest undeveloped tin reserves globally (excl. RU, KZ, DRC). Based on First Tin's development plans, tin production might begin in 2025.
  • Tin, an essential element in today's quality of life could become a seminal piece of the green transition with its application potentially expanding from electric vehicles, solar panels and automation to hydrogen generation, water purification and lithium-ion batteries. The expected widening of the gap between tin supply and demand beyond 2025 should significantly improve the long-term outlook for tin prices.
  • First Tin has a supportive shareholder base and is led by an experienced and dedicated management team with significant personal investments in the company.
  • First Tin is well funded to reach the investment-ready stage for both projects.

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CEE/European Macro & Rates Outlook (Presentation)

Gunter DEUBER SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 14:44 CEST

As disinflation continues, the monetary policy easing cycle in CE has already kicked off. Despite the expected recovery in consumption, the economic rebound ahead is set to be muted. In the presentation attached we outline our assessment of the developments in the region.

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Kosovo Watch: Growth shortfall, a tale of unexpected disappointment

Fjorent RRUSHI SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 11:18 CEST

Kosovo's economy took an unexpected twist in Q2 2023, with GDP growth falling short at 2.0% yoy. Inflation saw a rollercoaster ride, from decline to new pressures. Political instability and Serbia relations add to the complexity. Our 2023 GDP forecast is under review. Stay tuned as we delve deeper into these unfolding economic tales, dissecting the challenges and prospects that define Kosovo's economic journey in 2023.

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Fed Watch: Hawkish pause (or even the end?)

Franz ZOBL SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 08:51 CEST

The Fed opted for the expected pause but added a hawkish touch with updated projections. The latter show another rate hike until year-end and a very cautious rate cutting cycle from 2024 onwards. Expectations of higher-for-longer are building up on markets. Fed projections should, however, not be mistaken for pre-commitments. In the end, how economic data evolve will be decisive.

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Belarus Watch: Capital investment and low inflation ensured GDP growth

Casper ENGELEN SEPTEMBER 20, 2023 13:42 CEST

The economic recovery was supported by the expansion of industrial output, rebounding domestic demand, and falling inflation. Yet, the increase in imports put additional pressure on the recovery. Despite the expansion of EU/US/UK sanctions their overall impact remained unchanged.

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Russia Watch: The expected key rate path shifts slightly upwards

Gregory CHEPKOV SEPTEMBER 19, 2023 14:06 CEST

On September 15, the Central Bank of Russia opted for a 100bp key rate hike (to 13%). In our view, this implies moderately tighter monetary policy conditions in the coming few years in comparison to previous expectations.

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