Serbia Watch: Weak industry and retail sales performance

Ljiljana GRUBIC March 31, 2023 12:54 CEST

After a strong start in January (+4.1% yoy), industrial production slowed in February (+1.9% yoy) due to manufacturing. Meanwhile, retail trade moved into the red zone again, amid growing financing and energy costs.

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Albania Watch: Stronger than expected economy points to more tightening ahead

Fjorent RRUSHI March 30, 2023 17:01 CEST

In Q4 2022, the real GDP exceeded the most optimistic expectations and increased by 4.7% yoy versus our expectations for a 3.1% yoy jump. In addition, all the previous three quarters data were revised upwards (+0.7% in Q1 to 7%, +0.4% in Q2 to 3.1% and +0.9% in Q3 to 4.9%). The figures for 2020 and 2021 were also stronger than initially estimated with the recession 0.2% shallower than the initial figure in 2020 at -3.3% and in particular a stronger rebound in 2021 at +8.9% versus +8.5% previously. The preliminary figure for GDP growth rate for the year 2022 resulted at 4.8% and came as a surprise compared to our estimate of a growth rate of 3.9%.

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Slovakia Economic Insights: So far so good

Boris FOJTIK March 28, 2023 11:01 CEST

Despite being one of the more vulnerable countries, the Slovak economy is manoeuvring surprisingly well through the current crisis. Although some industries feel the heat and the crisis is definitely not yet over, chances to avoid even the technical recession are increasing.

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Kosovo Watch: Resilient economy in a delicate geopolitical moment

Fjorent RRUSHI March 21, 2023 14:59 CET

The meeting of March 18, which took place under the mediation of the EU between Kurti & Vucic, was advertised as the culmination of the efforts for a final agreement towards the normalization of relations between Kosovo & Serbia. However, in the end, no official signing occurred, although there is an understanding that de-facto, both countries agree with this proposal.

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Wide Angle Shot: CZ & SK - 30 years of independence, yet in close partnership

Helena HORSKA March 17, 2023 17:45 CET

At the beginning of 1993, the political map expanded and after a peaceful division, Czechoslovakia was replaced by the independent countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Developments over the last 30 years have often diverged and while the Czech Republic has taken a more proactive approach to integration from the start, Slovakia has managed to push integration further by joining the euro area. After 30 years, the two countries maintain a strong relationship and face new - often similar, often quite different - challenges.

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SVB - European banks in focus but contagion risk seems low (EN)

Werner SCHMITZER March 13, 2023 17:11 CET

The second largest bank failure in the US is having rippling effects throughout markets. Government bonds rallied in a flight to safe haven assets and also markets pricing out large parts of future rate hikes by the central banks for now. We would argue for the SVB failure to be a rather local event and point to the ample liquidity situation of the European banking sector - also thanks to TLTRO and differences in the deposit base in general.

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Serbia Watch: Food prices supporting inflation growing to 16.1% yoy in February

Ljiljana GRUBIC March 13, 2023 13:48 CET

The monthly dynamics in retail prices repeated in February (+1.4% mom) just like it was in January, supported by the ongoing growth in food prices (+2.7% mom). However, the annualized print went to 16.1% yoy after 15.8% in January 2023.

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