Bosnia and H. Watch: Political atmosphere heated to a point not seen since 1997

In the midst of a political crisis and stalemate in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the situation is additionally heated with the recent announcement by Mr. Milorad Dodik’s, as a Serb member of the Presidency of B&H, regarding the revocation of the consent for the existence of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, the Armed Forces of B&H, the Indirect Tax Authority and the State Investigation and Protection Agency competencies in the Republic of Srpska. Further, Mr. Dodik has announced the formation of a new Intelligence agency in this Entity. There is a political majority in the RS Government for the adoption of these decisions as Mr. Dodik’s party (SNSD) has the majority in the RS Parliament.

Mrs. Zeljka Cvijanovic, President of the Republic of Srpska Entity, has passed a decree that the amendments to the B&H Criminal Code, adopted by former High Representative Mr. Valentin Inzko before his leave, which criminalize the denial of genocide, will not apply from October 13^th in the smaller B&H entity.

After the inflammatory statements of the president of the SNSD, Mr. Dodik, about the future political path and actions to be taken in RS, the reactions and atmosphere in the political scene in B&H has never been more distressed and heated since the Dayton Peace Agreement was reached. However, in Banja Luka, opposition parties of RS completely distanced themselves from Dodik’s rhetoric, claiming these actions would lead to instability and a dangerous situation for all in B&H (Serbs and other ethnic groups). The messages from political parties from Sarajevo are clear, stating that these actions are an attempted coup, requesting an immediate reaction from relevant B&H institutions, the OHR and the international community and diplomatic partners.

One thing is certain, under the constitution there is no possibility for a single entity within B&H to unilaterally withdraw from the State institutions in B&H and declare independency. However, the Dayton Peace Agreement deprived B&H also of any mechanisms for dealing with unconstitutional actions. The issue of state security and stability is a political issue under the mandate of the High Representative and the OHR (i.e. the Peace Implementation Council (PIC)) and in the security aspect of EUFOR as a military force with a mandate to ensure the constitutional order in B&H. All eyes are now on the international community, where there is the real possibility of a strong reaction (with potential economic sanctions from the EU) towards RS’s politicians and their financiers, who have been driving the instability and this secessionist rhetoric and actions in recent times.