Poland Watch: Industrial sector resilience continues

Industrial output increased by 0.9% yoy in January and thus managed to sustain a positive annual dynamic despite unfavorable calendar effect. The result implies that the resilience of the industrial sector to the ongoing pandemic and restrictions continues at the start of 2021.

Industrial output recovering faster than GDP

CSO, Raiffeisen Research
quarterly data, %, yoy

Despite a significant downward effect from the calendar (2 working days less on a yoy basis) non-seasonally adjusted industrial output in January still recorded an increase of 0.9% yoy (and a drop by 5.1% mom). As visible in the chart above industrial sector has recovered from the first pandemic wave faster than the whole economy and continued to increase output in Q4 despite the second wave reaching Poland. Combined with the good reading for January, it seems thus that also in Q1 results should be relatively good.

Among 34 industries merely 15 recorded a yoy increase in output January which is a deterioration compared to previous months. In particular, a strong increase was recorded in the output of electric devices while a decline was observed in the production of leather goods with both branches important for export activity. However, given the negative calendar effects in January, next months may again bring yoy increases in most industries.

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Dorota Strauch is leading economic research on Poland from the RBI Branch located in Warsaw. She began working in Polish RBI network bank in 2010. In 2017 she became the Head of Polish Research team. Having a master’s degree in Financial Markets and Banking she deepened her knowledge by becoming the CFA charterholder in 2016. In the following years she has been focusing on improving data analysis skills with the use of Python programming language. Apart from current economic developments in Poland and the CEE region she is particularly interested in the impact of new technologies on the economy, politics and society.

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