Poland Watch: Industrial sector resilience continues

Despite a significant downward effect from the calendar (2 working days less on a yoy basis) non-seasonally adjusted industrial output in January still recorded an increase of 0.9% yoy (and a drop by 5.1% mom). As visible in the chart above industrial sector has recovered from the first pandemic wave faster than the whole economy and continued to increase output in Q4 despite the second wave reaching Poland. Combined with the good reading for January, it seems thus that also in Q1 results should be relatively good.

Among 34 industries merely 15 recorded a yoy increase in output January which is a deterioration compared to previous months. In particular, a strong increase was recorded in the output of electric devices while a decline was observed in the production of leather goods with both branches important for export activity. However, given the negative calendar effects in January, next months may again bring yoy increases in most industries.