Q2 GDP results surprised mostly to the upside in Europe. However, this should not distract from the poor outlook signaled by sentiment surveys for the rest of the year. Inflationary pressure remains high and the question is where is the peak in inflation and key interest rates.
Even more astonishing than current inflation figures is the “consensus” figure provided by financial institutions for the full year 2022 which, based on a survey by the Central Banks, stands at 6.5%, significantly below our forecast of 10.4%. We believe that even our forecast faces upward risks depending on the geopolitical developments.