At its fourth meeting this year, the CNB cut interest rates by 50 bp, which aligned with our forecast. However, the decision came as a surprise as the market and most analysts were leaning towards a more cautious approach and a rate cut of only 25 bp. |
Caution, adaptive stance, and data dependency remain the keywords for the monetary policy of ECB, the Fed and in the CE/SEE region. For CE central banks this means fewer cuts in Czechia, and Hungary in H2 vs H1, possibly even no cuts in Poland. For SEE this approach implies easing in small steps only, leaving the key rates at still elevated levels. |
After rising to 2.9% yoy in April, CPI fell to 2.6% in May. Food prices, the main reason for the April rise in inflation, had the opposite effect this time. Following the CPI release, we still expect the CNB to cut rates by 50bps in June, but with a 25bps cut also very likely. |
The ECB kicked off the June meetings of the major central banks today, and as has been the case for the past few months, interest rate expectations and differentials remain a key driver of the currency markets. The rate decisions by themselves are unlikely to cause many surprises for EUR/USD. Still, the hopes are high that the central banks might send important signals. In the case of the SNB, and therefore EUR/CHF, the data leaves more room for doubt, and currency markets reflect this uncertainty with a stronger franc. A more cautious CNB has prompted us to issue new EUR/CZK projections while the risks for EUR/HUF remain balanced. In Ukraine, the NBU continues to be confronted with increased uncertainty in the market. This issues features
|
The markets are on the lookout to register all relevant signals and their implications for interest rates with the utmost attention. For EUR/USD, this means a slightly higher notation after the Fed and the labour market report, which nevertheless failed to support the yen. In Switzerland, the slight rise in inflation could not shake the markets. In contrast, a change in interest rate expectations in the Czech koruna triggered a move below the EUR/CZK 25 mark, while the risks in the HUF levelled out, which recently led to low volatility. This issues features
|