Our baseline for 2024 - a muted recovery driven by consumer demand, combined with disinflation and monetary policy easing - still holds. Nevertheless, recent inflation data turned out more positive, warranting some downward revisions. |
We publish our combined 2024 Austrian & CEE Equity Navigator in which we take a constructive view on our home markets. Our preferred stock pick stem from several sectors on which we have a positive view. These comprise Financials (Erste and OTP: supportive interest rates, attractive shareholder returns), Oil & Gas (OMV and Romgaz: strong FCF generation, attractive dividends), Communication Services (Telekom Austria and 11 bit studios: revenue growth, margin improvement), Consumer (Aquila and LPP: sales growth, margin expansion), Industrials (Andritz and Koncar: strong order backlog, improving profitability) and Information Technology (AT&S: market recovery, potential exposure to AI) sectors. We generally adopt a neutral stance on Insurance (slowing pricing momentum vs. solid dividends), Real Estate (uncertainties regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, weak real estate transaction markets) and Utilities (negative electricity price momentum, new regulation pending). Our top picks in Austria: Andritz, AT&S, Erste, OMV, Telekom Austria. Our top picks in CEE: 11 bit studios (PL), Aquila (RO), Koncar (HR), LPP (PL), OTP (HU), Romgaz (RO). |
In 2023, the Belarusian economy witnessed a remarkable growth trajectory (3.9% yoy) that surpassed our expectations. The upswing was fueled by robust capital investments, industrial expansion, and a rebound in consumer demand. However, challenges loom on the horizon for 2024. |
After years of crises, hopes for 2024 are somewhat clouded, not least due to the geopolitical circumstances. (Geo)politics and interest rate cuts are the buzzwords for the new year on the currency markets, with the former representing potential upward pressure for the safe havens CHF and USD. In Poland, local politics put pressure on the exchange rate. The Albanian lek remains strong backed by fundamentals. Finally, while the rouble showed its stable side recently, supported by several factors, the NBU had to break a devaluation trend. This issues features
|
December's flash reading of CPI shows a drop to 6.1% yoy, driven by a decrease in fuel prices (November: 6.6%, consensus 6.5%). Core inflation likely decreased also while staying above CPI for now. The data does not alter our forecast for no change in the key rate next week. |